View on Jet Airways & Graphite India

 

Jet Airways is fundamentally weak and company has reserves left for two months and negative news persists in nearby future and one may avoid this counter as sentiments are down and we may see more downside along with rising crude oil prices and 2018-q1 net loss  of 1,036 crore is also not  giving promising prospectus as it may also increase.

Technically Jet Airways is looking weak and  also its looking on a downward trajectory and any upside move may not be trusted.Allow stock to settle around 310--335 before building any position.Immediate strong support at 285.Below  285 we may see heavy downside and stock may test 255--215.See where its heading and take action.

 

Graphite India is fundamentally highly recommendable stock with staller order book at hand and is a buy at every dip and should be in one"s portfolio.

Technically its looking to very strong and heading to form new highs.Stock may consolidate for few session and one may add at every dip.Stock has showed a jump from 990 to 1100 and immediate position can be build by averaging in range of 1130 to  1030 .One may maintain Positional stop loss or support  at 900.

MORE WILL UPDATE SOON!!

Correction phases are healthy, say experts. M&M, Yes Bank among top 22 bets over one year

We remain overweight on discretionary consumption theme with stocks like Safari Industries, Bata, Blue Star and Parag Milk Foods.

  

After subdued performance till June, the rally in market started in July and is continuing in August. This helped the benchmark indices cross new milestones (38,000 on the Sensex and nearly 11,500 on the Nifty), driven by stable to better-than-expected earnings growth in the June quarter; though it corrected in the past two consecutive sessions on global concerns.

We feel any decline due to external factors would be short-lived and traders should continue with "buy on dips" approach. In fact, it's healthy to have such corrective phase as it eliminates weak hands.

We suggest to keep close eye on global developments along with prevailing earnings season for cues.

To believe that the market may be in wait-and-watch mode till general elections 2019, but this period could also offer opportunities to cherry pick some quality equity investment.

The research house recommend 22 top picks as good bets to utilize this opportunity which are offering healthy returns in the next 1 year. All of these top picks are backed by sound business model and are likely to do well in the coming years.

Here is the list of 22 stocks  which could return up to 58% over a period of one year:

Dewan Housing

We expect the company’s loan growth to remain 29 percent over next two years and earnings growth is likely to be more than 29 percent.

We maintain "buy" on the stock with a target price of Rs 720.

Safari Industries

Safari Industries is the third largest branded player in the Indian luggage industry. Post the management change in 2012, Safari has grown its revenue by 6x in the last 7 years.

We expect its revenue to grow by a CAGR of around 25/40 percent in revenue/earnings over FY2018-20E on the back of growth in its recently introduced new products.

Mahindra & Mahindra

We expect Mahindra & Mahindra to report net revenue CAGR of around 13 percent to around Rs 62,235 crore over FY2018-20E mainly due to healthy growth in automobile segment like utility vehicles (on the back of new launches and facelift of some models) and strong growth in Tractors segment driven by strong brand recall and improvement in rural sentiment.

Further on the bottomline front, we expect CAGR of around 18 percent to Rs 5,600 crore over the same period on the back of margin improvement. Thus, we recommend an Accumulate rating on the stock with target price of Rs 1,050.

Blue Star

BSL is one of the largest air-conditioning companies in India. With a mere 3 percent penetration level of ACs versus 25 percent in China, the overall outlook for the room air-conditioner (RAC) market in India is favourable.

Aided by increasing contribution from the unitary products, we expect the overall topline to post revenue CAGR of around 13 percent over FY2018-20E and margins to improve from 5.8 percent in FY2018 to 6.2 percent in FY2020E.

We recommend a Buy rating on the stock.

Siyaram Silk Mills

Going forward, we expect SSML to report a net sales CAGR of around 14 percent to around Rs 2,272 crore and adjusted net profit CAGR of around 14 percent to Rs 150 crore over FY2018-20E on back of market leadership in blended fabrics, strong brand building, wide distribution channel, strong presence in tier II and tier III cities and emphasis on latest designs and affordable pricing points.

At the current market price, SSML trades at an inexpensive valuation. We have a buy recommendation on the stock and target price of Rs 851.

Maruti Suzuki

The automobile sector is expected to benefit from the GST implementation.

Due to the favourable business mix, company has also been seeing improvement in the margins. Company has already moved from around 11-12 percent together with higher operating leverage at Gujarat plant, increasing Nexa outlets, and improving business mix, we believe that company has further room to improve its margins.

We have a Buy rating on the stock.

HDFC Bank

We expect the company’s loan growth to remain 22 percent over next two years and earnings growth is likely to be more than 21 percent. We maintain Accumulate on the stock with a target price of Rs 2,350.

Music Broadcast

Capex for 39 licenses have been done for the next 15 years, hence no heavy incremental Capex requirement would emerge.

Moreover, the maintenance capex would be as low as Rs 5-10 crore. This would leave sufficient cash flow to distribute as dividend.

We have a Buy recommendation on the stock and target price of Rs 475.

KEI Industries

KEI’s export (FY18 – 16 percent of revenue) is expected to reach a level 20 percent in next two years with higher order execution from current OB and participation in various international tenders.

We expect a strong around 25 percent growth CAGR over FY2018-20 in exports. We expect KEI to report net revenue CAGR of around 16 percent to around Rs 4,646 crore and net profit CAGR of around 19 percent to Rs 207 crore over FY2018-20E. Hence we have a Buy rating on the stock.

GIC Housing Finance

GICHF has healthy capital adequacy, and is seeing an increase in demand for home loans.

We expect the GICHF's loan growth to grow at a CAGR of 23 percent over next two years and RoA/RoE to improve from 1.8/20.3 percent in FY18 to 1.9/23 percent in FY20E. We have a Buy rating on the stock.

Yes Bank

YES Bank currently trades at 2.4x times FY20E Book Value, which we believe is reasonable for a bank with high-growth traction, improving CASA and prospect of improving NIM.

Matrimony.com

We expect MCL to report net revenue CAGR of around 15 percent to around Rs 450 crore over FY2018-20E mainly due to strong growth in online matchmaking and marriage related services coupled by its strong brand recall and large user database.

On the bottomline front, we expect CAGR of around 15 percent to Rs 83 crore over the same period on the back of margin improvement.

RBL Bank

RBL Bank has grown its loan book at healthy CAGR of 56 percent over FY10-18. We expect it to grow at 30 percent over FY18-20E.

The bank currently trades at 2.9x its FY2020E price to book value, which we believe is reasonable for a bank in a high growth phase with stable asset quality.

Parag Milk Foods

Parag Milk Foods is one of the leading dairy products companies in India. The company has been successful in creating strong brands like GO, Gowardhan and in introducing new products like Whey Protein. It has become the 2nd player in processed cheese (after Amul) in a short span of 10 years and commands 33 percent market share.

We expect Parag to report net revenue/PAT CAGR of 18/36 percent respectively over FY2018-20E.

ICICI Bank

The gradual improvement in recovery of bad loans would reduce credit costs that would help to improve return ratio.

The strength of the liability franchise, shift in loan mix towards retail assets and better rated companies, and improvement in bad loans would be a key trigger for multiple expansion. We recommend a Buy rating on the stock, with a price target of Rs 416.

Aditya Birla Capital

We expect financialisation of savings, increasing penetration in Insurance & Mutual funds would ensure steady growth.

Further, Banca tie-up with HDFC Bank, DBS and LVB should restore insurance business. We recommend a Buy rating on the stock, with a price target of Rs 218.

Aurobindo Pharmaceuticals

We expect Aurobindo to report net revenue CAGR of around 13 percent & net profit to grow at around 5 percent CAGR during FY2018-20E, due to increased R&D expenditure.

However, valuations of the company are cheap versus its peers and own fair multiples of 17-18x. We recommend Buy rating.

GMM Pfaudler

GMM Pfaudler is the Indian market leader in glass-lined (GL) steel equipment used in corrosive chemical processes of agrochemicals, specialty chemical and pharma sector.

GMM is likely to maintain over 20 percent growth trajectory over FY18-20 backed by capacity expansion and cross selling of non-GL products to its clients.

Jindal Steel & Power

Owing to continuous demand of steel from infrastructure, housing and auto sectors along with limited addition of steel capacity in near term and favorable government policies augur well for JSPL to perform well going forward, we expect JSPL’s utilisation to improve to 80-85 percent by FY19.

JSPL is trading at attractive valuation to its peer, we value the stock based on asset based approach of Steel segment on EV/Tonne basis and Power segment on EV/MW basis.

Shriram Transport Finance

SHTF's primary focus is on financing pre-owned commercial vehicles. CV/LCV sales grew by 20/25 percent in FY18, respectively.

We expect AUM to grow at healthy CAGR of 20 percent over FY2018-20E led by pick up in infra/ construction before 2019 elections, macro revival and Ramping up in rural distribution.

We expect loan book/PAT CAGR of 20/45 percent respectively over FY2018-20E. At 2.2x FY20E ABV, valuation appears reasonable.

Bata India

We expect Bata to report net revenue CAGR of around 16 percent to around Rs 3,555 crore over FY2018-20E mainly due increasing brand consciousness amongst Indian consumers, new product launches and focus on women's segment (high growth segment).

Further, on the bottom-line front, we expect CAGR of around 19 percent to Rs 323 crore over the same period on the back of margin improvement (increasing premium product sales).

Thus, we initiate coverage on Bata India with Accumulate recommendation and target price of Rs 1,007.

Amber Enterprises

Amber Enterprises India is the market leader in the room air conditioners (RAC) outsourced manufacturing space in India.

We expect Amber to report consolidated revenue/PAT CAGR of 28/51 percent respectively over FY2018-20E.

Its growing manufacturing capabilities and scale put it in a sweet spot to capture the under penetrated RAC market in India.

MORE WILL UPDATE SOON!!

Looking for momentum plays? Top 5 stocks that could return 9-15% in 1-2 months

If the market starts to trade below 11,340 levels, expect profit booking towards 11,200-11,170, which is a major support level.

  

The domestic equity market got off to a weak start on Monday as Turkey’s economic crisis sparked contagion fears, which sent emerging market currencies to multi-year lows. The Nifty closed Monday at 11,356 levels, down 0.65 percent for the day.

On the weekly chart, the index touched a rising channel connecting lows (9,959-10,558) and highs (10,929-11,495). After forming a ‘Small Bodied’ candlestick on the weekly chart, the index has seen a gap-down opening on the daily chart as well.

If the market starts to trade below 11,340 levels, we expect profit-booking towards 11,200-11,170 levels, which is a major support level. On the upside, a break above 11,415 levels can see the index test 11,500 levels. In Nifty options, maximum put open interest is placed at 11,000 strike, followed by 11,200 strike. For calls, the same is placed at 11,500 strike.

Call writing was seen in 11,400 and 11,500 strike, while unwinding was seen in 11,400 and 11,300 puts. Some writing was seen in 11,200 put, suggesting support at 11,200 and resistance at 11,500. India VIX closed at 13.4 and is seeing consolidation at lower levels. A break above 13.5 could lead to profit-booking in the market.

Here is a list of top five stocks which could return 9-15% in the next 1-2 months:

United Breweries: Buy| CMP: Rs 1,298 | Stop loss: Rs 1,240 | Target: Rs 1450 | Return: 12%

The stock formed a major bullish cup and handle bottoming out the pattern on the monthly chart over the three-year period. On the weekly chart, the stock has formed a bullish inverted head and shoulders pattern over the last nine months.

The decline in the month of June and July has taken support at 200-day moving average and price has rallied from the average to close at breakout level.

In Monday’s session, the stock has seen a strong momentum and high volumes action indicating buying participation in the stock. Price has given breakout from Bollinger band on the upside with the expansion of band on daily chart suggesting a continuation of the rally.

The momentum indicators are in a bullish mode suggesting a breakout is likely to be on the upside. Thus, the stock can be bought at current level and on dips towards Rs 1,280 with a stop loss below Rs 1,240 for a target of Rs 1,450 levels.

Tata Elxsi: Buy | LTP: Rs 1415 | Stop loss: Rs 1365 | Target: Rs 1550 | Return: 9.5%

The stock is in a long-term uptrend forming higher tops and higher bottom formations on its weekly chart. The stock touched a high of Rs 1,491 couple of weeks back and has slowly seen a correction towards Rs 1,375 levels.

After four days of consolidation, the stock is showing signs of breakout on the upside. The price has moved above the 21-days exponential moving average that has acted as a support for the stock in the past.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has given a positive crossover with its average on the daily chart suggesting a short-term correction and resumption of the uptrend. Thus, the stock can be bought at current level and on dips to 1400 with a stop loss below Rs 1365 and a target of Rs 1550 levels.

Infosys: Buy| LTP: Rs 1409 | Stop loss: Rs 1360 | Target: Rs 1620 | Return: 15%

The stock has been in an uptrend for the last one year forming higher tops and higher bottoms. After witnessing a breakout above its previous all-time of Rs 1278, the stock tested the breakout level and seen continuation of the uptrend since then.

The price witnessed a short-term consolidation of two weeks which eventually led to a breakout to close at a new all-time high. The stock continues to hold above 21-day exponential moving average and heading higher.

The price has given a breakout from the Bollinger band on the upside with the expansion of band on daily chart suggesting a continuation of the rally.

The daily MACD line given positive crossover with its average and moved above the equilibrium level. Thus considering the above evidence, the stock can be bought at current level and on dips to Rs 1395 with a stop loss below Rs 1360 and a target of Rs 1620 levels.

Nestle India: Buy| LTP: Rs 10851 | Stop loss: Rs 10450 | Target 12000 | Return: 11%

The stock has been in an uptrend forming higher tops and higher bottoms on daily chart since its breakout from major consolidation pattern at Rs 8000 odd levels in the month of April this year.

The stock has been moving along the 21-day exponential moving average and heading higher. The weekly MACD has given a positive crossover with its average. Thus, the stock can be bought at current level and on dips to Rs 10750 with a stop loss below Rs 10450 for the target of Rs 12000 levels.

Larsen & Toubro Infotech: Buy| LTP: Rs 1724 | Stop loss: Rs 1660 | Target 1900 | Return: 10%

The stock is in a long-term uptrend forming higher tops and higher bottoms on the weekly charts. For the last five weeks, the stock has been consolidating between Rs 1880 and Rs 1650 odd levels.

For the last seven sessions, it has been trading at the lower end of the range. Also, the stock is currently trading at a 50-day moving average which has been acting as support for the price and heading higher.

Hence, the stock is trading at important support levels. The daily Stochastic has given positive crossover with its average. Thus, the stock can be bought at current level and on dips to Rs 1700 with a stop loss below Rs 1660 for a target of Rs 1900 levels.

MORE WILL UPDATE SOON!!

Market Week Ahead: 10 factors that will keep traders busy next week

The market is expected to consolidate for next few sessions before resuming its northward journey, but the long term trend remains positive.

  

Bulls continued to dominate Dalal Street for the third consecutive week as the Nifty and Sensex hit fresh intraday record highs of 11,495.20 and 38,076.23, respectively, in the week-ended August 10.

Inflow from foreign institutional investors, continued buying in banking and financials and in-line better-than-expected Q1 earnings boosted investor sentiment, though there is a caution in global peers due to trade tensions.

The Sensex gained 0.83 percent to close the week at 37,869.23. The Nifty rose 0.60 percent to end Friday at 11,429.50. Both benchmark indices have rallied 3.8 percent in the last three weeks.

The broader market underperformed frontliners with the BSE Midcap and Smallcap indices gaining 0.02 percent and 0.29 percent, respectively, in the passing week but outperformed in three consecutive weeks, rising 6.7 percent each.

After such an upmove and given that we are at the fag end of the June quarter earnings season, which seems to have been priced in, and continued uncertainty over US-China trade war, experts expect the market to consolidate for the next few sessions before resuming its northward journey. However, they were quick to add that the long term trend remains intact.

Experts don't see any major risk on the domestic front, adding that any sharp correction if it occurs will only be because of global reasons.

"With the index trading at a record high, some consolidation cannot be ruled out. We expect stock-specific volatility to continue with more corporate earnings scheduled in the next few sessions.

Experts said market participants would keep an eye on global developments especially the US-China trade war, progress of the monsoon, macroeconomic data, investment by foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) and domestic institutional investors (DIIs), movement of the rupee against the dollar and crude oil price trajectory.

"We continue to remain positive on market. We feel a sufficient monsoon, hike in the minimum support price and government infrastructure spending will be positive for the consumption theme," Hemang Jani, Head - Advisory, Sharekhan by BNP Paribas said.

Indian stock market will remain shut on Wednesday, August 15, on account of Independence Day.

Here are 10 key factors that will keep traders busy next week:

Earnings

As we enter the final week of June quarter earnings season, nearly 1,800 companies will declare their quarterly earnings. Most of these will be out in the first two sessions of the week itself.

Tata Steel, Tata Chemicals, Cadila Healthcare, CARE Ratings, Godrej Industries, DHFL, Oil India, Ashoka Buildcon and Hotel Leela Venture will announce their numbers on Monday, while Sun Pharmaceutical Industries, IDBI Bank, Allahabad Bank, Grasim Industries, Indiabulls Real Estate, HDIL and Dilip Buildcon will declare results on Tuesday.

Trade war

Globally investors will continue to closely watch trade tensions between the world's largest economies: US and China. In the week gone by, both governments announced the possibility of imposing tit-for-tat tariffs on an additional $16 billion worth of goods.

Dollar-rupee and crude movements

The rupee ended the week at 68.83 against the dollar, falling 22 paise compared to closing value of 68.61 a dollar on August 3 due to appreciation in the American currency. On Friday, it did hit 69 a dollar intraday.

The fall in currency was after upside seen in previous two consecutive weeks, as renewed global currency turmoil (hit by the sudden wave of risk-off on mounting fears over a political crisis in Turkey) and worsening trade war fears worldwide rattled the forex market in a big way.

Further depreciation in the rupee may act as a dampener in the near term for equities.

Crude oil prices corrected for the week-ended August 10 as investors worried that global trade disputes could slowdown economic growth and hurt demand for energy.

US crude futures fell more than a percent during the week, posting its sixth straight weekly loss for its worst losing streak since August 2015. Brent was down around half a percent.

Macro data

Consumer price index (CPI) inflation will be released on Monday while Wholesale price index (WPI) Inflation and trade data for July will be announced on Tuesday.

India's Foreign Exchange Reserves for the week ended August 10 and deposit & bank loan growth for the week ended August 3 will be declared on Friday.

Money flow

Foreign institutional investors and domestic institutional investors' flow will be closely watch in the coming week after they were net buyers in the passing week.

FIIs inflow remained supportive factor during the week ended August 10 as they were net buyers to the tune of around Rs 1,300 crore while DIIs (as per provisional data) were also net buyers to the tune of Rs 301 crore.

Technical outlook

The Nifty opened the week above 11,400 levels and managed to hold the same level at close on Friday. It remained rangebound for major part of the week, though it touched intraday record high of 11,495.20 amid stable to better-than-expected earnings.

The index formed Spinning Top candle on the weekly candlestick charts. Spinning Top is often regarded as a neutral pattern which suggests indecisiveness on the part of both bulls as well as bears. It can be formed in an uptrend as well as in a downtrend.

After positive close for five consecutive sessions, the Nifty ended Friday on a negative note, which indicated that there could be consolidation before moving northward.

The Nifty ended the week with a spinning top candle while negative divergence in daily RSI is clearly visible. It broke out the higher end of the range 11,180-11,440 and touched the high of 11,495. However, sell-off on the last session of the week led the benchmark index back below 11,440.

Hence, staying cautious on rise is advised and the Nifty getting into a sideways movement with negative bias in coming few sessions is likely, it feels. "A short-term retracement against the broader uptrend is likely. Hence, intraday bulls may find difficulty breaking out 11,500 as of now. However, breaking out 11,500 may again initiate a rise up to 11,550 and 11,650. But, that looks unlikely at this juncture analyzing the overall chart pattern."

The research house said further, thorough technical study of the weekly as well as the daily chart patterns suggests, Nifty broader trading range for the coming week is expected to be 11,320-11,550.

Futures & Options

Maximum call open interest (OI) of 41.51 lakh contracts was seen at the 11,500 strike price. This will act as a crucial resistance level for August series. This was followed by the 11,600 strike price, which now holds 27.57 lakh contracts in open interest, and 11,700, which has accumulated 24.34 lakh contracts in open interest.

Maximum put open interest of 50.70 lakh contracts was seen at the 11,000 strike price. This will act as a crucial support level for August series. This was followed by the 11,200 strike price, which now holds 43.32 lakh contracts in open interest, and the 11,300 strike price, which has now accumulated 41.12 lakh contracts in open interest.

The Call base of 11,500 remained almost unchanged despite the Nifty testing these levels. At the same time, significant additions were seen at Put strikes of 11,200 and 11,300 during the week.

It believes 11,300 is likely to act as immediate support for the Nifty in the ongoing momentum. "Any extended profit booking should be seen only if the Nifty moves below 11,300."

The PCR OI for the Nifty continued to rise in the current uptrend where no major profit booking took place as traders are getting more comfortable in writing Put options. At the same time, current Nifty futures open interest is highest since January 2018.

With high PCR OI and high Nifty open interest, we believe consolidation is more likely than continued momentum. However, positive bias should be maintained till we see some sharp closure of positions.

Stocks in Focus

Coal India: Q1 consolidated profit up 61.1 percent at Rs 3,786.4 crore versus Rs 2,350.8 crore; revenue up 26.6 percent at Rs 24,260.9 crore versus Rs 19,161.7 crore (YoY)

Power Mech: Q1 profit up 42.5 percent at Rs 30.5 crore versus Rs 21.4 crore; revenue up 28.9 percent at Rs 461.9 crore versus Rs 358.4 crore (YoY).

NBCC: Q1 consolidated profit up 23.9 percent at Rs 73.2 crore versus Rs 59.1 crore; revenue up 19.1 percent at Rs 1,844 crore versus Rs 1,548.9 crore (YoY).

VRL Logistics: Q1 profit down 28.3 percent at Rs 24.2 crore versus Rs 33.7 crore; revenue up 7.4 percent at Rs 528.5 crore versus Rs 491.9 crore (YoY).

Rushil Decor: Q1 profit down 19.5 percent at Rs 5.2 crore versus Rs 6.4 crore; revenue up 9.8 percent at Rs 86.6 crore versus Rs 78.9 crore (YoY).

India Cements: Q1 profit down 20.6 percent at Rs 21 crore versus Rs 26.4 crore; revenue down 6.9 percent at Rs 1,360.7 crore versus Rs 1,461.6 crore (YoY).

Glenmark Pharma: Q1 profit down 30 percent at Rs 233 crore versus Rs 333.4 crore; revenue down 8.4 percent at Rs 2,165.6 crore versus Rs 2,363 crore (YoY).

Adani Green: Q1 consolidated loss at Rs 74.3 crore versus loss of Rs 17 crore; revenue jumps to Rs 472.2 crore versus Rs 190 crore (YoY).

Corporation Bank: Q1 profit up 41.1 percent at Rs 85 crore versus Rs 60.1 crore; NII up 51.1 percent at Rs 1,564.2 crore versus Rs 1,035 crore (YoY).

Finolex Industries: Q1 net profit up 29.5 percent at Rs 103.3 crore versus Rs 79.8 crore; revenue up 13.3 percent at Rs 827.8 crore versus Rs 730.7 crore (YoY).

Advanced Enzyme: Q1 consolidated net profit up 92 percent at Rs 31.2 crore versus 16.3 crore; revenue up 38.2 percent at Rs 104.3 crore versus Rs 75.5 crore (YoY).

DLF: Q1 profit up 58.2 percent at Rs 172.4 crore versus Rs 109 crore; revenue down 26.4 percent at Rs 1507.4 crore versus Rs 2047.7 crore (YoY).

Union Bank of India: Q1 profit up 11.2 percent at Rs 129.5 crore versus Rs 116.5 crore; NII rises to Rs 2,626.2 crore versus Rs 2,242.6 crore (YoY).

NHPC: Q1 profit down 14.5 percent at Rs 737.6 crore versus Rs 862.7 crore; revenue down 8.5 percent at Rs 2,129 crore versus Rs 2,327.5 crore (YoY).

Sun TV Network: Q1 profit up 62.6 percent at Rs 409.1 crore versus Rs 251.6 crore; revenue up 42.5 percent at Rs 1,120.4 crore versus Rs 786.3 crore (YoY).

Godfrey Phillips: Q1 profit at Rs 56.7 crore versus loss of Rs 3.1 crore; revenue up 6.6 percent at Rs 574.9 crore versus Rs 539.4 crore (YoY).

MRPL: Q1 profit down 33.2 percent at Rs 362 crore versus Rs 542.1 crore; revenue down 9.6 percent at Rs 13,557.8 crore versus Rs 14,990.7 crore (QoQ).

Nile: Q1 profit down 45.2 percent at Rs 2.9 crore versus Rs 5.3 crore; revenue up 6.1 percent at Rs 153 crore versus Rs 144.2 crore (YoY).

Rajshree Sugars: Q1 loss at Rs 25.3 crore versus profit of Rs 18.2 crore; revenue down 53.7 percent at Rs 93.4 crore versus Rs 201.6 crore (YoY).

TVS Srichakra: Q1 profit up 95.6 percent at Rs 48.5 crore versus Rs 24.8 crore; revenue up 9 percent at Rs 587.8 crore versus Rs 539.3 crore (YoY).

Thyrocare: Q1 profit up 6.4 percent at Rs 23.4 crore versus Rs 22 crore; revenue up 10.7 percent at Rs 97.2 crore versus Rs 87.8 crore (YoY).

Timken India: Q1 profit up 44.3 percent at Rs 31.6 crore versus Rs 21.9 crore; revenue up 27.9 percent at Rs 383.4 crore versus Rs 299.8 crore (YoY).

Vakrangee: Q1 profit down 92.2 percent at Rs 13.1 crore versus Rs 168 crore; revenue down 22.6 percent at Rs 1,011.5 crore versus Rs 1,301.8 crore (YoY).

Sheela Foam: Q1 profit up 23.7 percent at Rs 33.4 crore versus Rs 27 crore; revenue up 22.5 percent at Rs 425.6 crore versus Rs 347.3 crore (YoY).

Indian Hotels: Q1 loss at Rs 16.7 crore versus profit of Rs 7.7 crore; revenue up 7 percent at Rs 564.6 crore versus Rs 527.7 crore (YoY).

PC Jeweller: Q1 profit up 4.5 percent at Rs 141.9 crore versus Rs 135.8 crore; revenue up 14.6 percent at Rs 2423.2 crore versus Rs 2115 crore (YoY).

CG Power: Q1 profit up 18.7 percent at Rs 36.8 crore versus Rs 31 crore; revenue up 0.1 percent at Rs 1,179.8 crore versus Rs 1,178.5 crore (YoY).

Andhra Bank: Q1 loss at Rs 539.8 crore versus profit of Rs 40.4 crore; NII up 1.3 percent at Rs 1,460 crore versus Rs 1,441 crore (YoY).

JB Chemicals: Q1 profit at Rs 42 crore versus Rs 20.36 crore; revenue up 28.9 percent at Rs 366 crore versus Rs 283.2 crore (YoY).

Puravankara: Q1 profit up 29.7 percent at Rs 27 crore versus Rs 20.7 crore; revenue up 12.9 percent at Rs 382 crore versus Rs 338.5 crore (YoY).

Gujarat Mineral: Q1 profit up 30.7 percent at Rs 187 crore versus Rs 143 crore; revenue up 10.5 percent at Rs 672 crore versus Rs 608.4 crore (YoY).

Aditya Birla Capital: Q1 profit increases at Rs 216 crore versus Rs 172 crore; revenue rises to Rs 2,978 crore versus Rs 2,253 crore (YoY).

Surya Roshni: Q1 profit up 24.2 percent at Rs 20.5 crore versus Rs 16.5 crore; revenue up 11.8 percent at Rs 1270.5 crore versus Rs 1136.9 crore (YoY).

Uflex: Q1 profit up 0.6 percent at Rs 94.4 crore versus Rs 93.8 crore; revenue up 11.2 percent at Rs 1,904.8 crore versus Rs 1,713.3 crore (YoY).

TNPL: Q1 profit down 32.6 percent at Rs 38.8 crore versus Rs 57.6 crore; revenue down 11.9 percent at Rs 925.3 crore versus Rs 1,050 crore (YoY).

Rupa: Q1 profit up 10.8 percent at Rs 10.3 crore versus Rs 9.3 crore; revenue up 12.2 percent at Rs 183.5 crore versus Rs 163.5 crore (YoY).

Alkem Labs: US FDA issues no Form 483 to company's manufacturing unit in California.

XPro India: Board gets shareholder nod for reappointment of C Bhaskar as MD & CEO.

APT Packaging: Board approves re-appointment of Arvind Machhar as MD.

Jindal Poly Films: Jindal Poly Films: Board approved expansion plans for company's India operation by way of investment of approximately Rs 400 crore in 2nd Nonwoven Spunmelt Fabric line; also approved expansion plans for India operation by way of investment of Rs 350 crore in Biaxially-Oriented Poly Propylene (BOPP)-Line No.8 and Cast Poly Propylene (C PP) Line No. 2.

Jet Airways: S Vishwanathan did not quit the audit committee; his term came to an end.

7NR Retail: Board approved issue of bonus shares in the ratio 1:2.

Arihant Superstructures: Board has constituted a committee on insider trading and board was informed of non-compliance of SEBI provisions by independent director, Dinesh Babel.

HDFC Bank: Deputy MD Paresh Sukthankar resigns.

Tata Motors: July total group global wholesales down 5 percent at 92,639 units (YoY).

Adani Gas: Wins 7 more geographical areas, Bharat Gas wins 5 geographical areas and Torrent Gas wins 3 geographical areas under 9th round of City Gas Distribution bid - Reports CNBC-TV18.

Global cues

US consumer inflation expectations for July, and China's FDI year-to-date and outstanding loan growth for July will be released on Monday.

China's Industrial Production and Retail Sales for July; Japan's capacity utilisation and Industrial Production for June; and Euro Area's GDP growth for Q2CY18 and Industrial production for June will be announced on Tuesday.

China's House Price Index for July; and US' Retail Sales & Industrial Production for July, MBA Mortgage Application for the week ended August 10 and API & EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change for the week ended August 10 will be declared on Wednesday.

Japan's Balance of Trade for July; Euro Area's Balance of Trade for June; US' Initial Jobless Claims for the week ended August 11 and Housing Starts for July will be released on Thursday.

Euro Area's Inflation for July, Current Account Balance for June and Core inflation rate for July will be announced on Friday.

MORE WILL UPDATE SOON!!

Hold on to equities! It is time for a pause, but buy the dip for a target of 12,200

In the worst case scenario, correction may get extended up to 11,200 kinds of levels on the downside before resuming its up move.

 

New sustainable life-time highs on Indian bourses in the midst of global jitters caught many by surprise reinstating the fact that Indian indices are in a long-term bull market as it continued to climb the wall of worries.

However, as the relentless up move on Nifty50 from the recent lows of 10,557 added almost around 1,000 points in the last 6 weeks taking the index towards long-term resistance levels placed around 11,500 from where a fresh breakout is required on long-term charts which shall further facilitate a multi-month up move.

Besides, this vertical up move after a pause of two months led the technical oscillators into overbought zones warranting a correction in the near term which appears to have unfolded from the highs of 11,495 last Friday.

In the worst case scenario, this correction may get extended up to 11,200 kinds of levels on the downside before resuming its up move. In case of a fresh breakout above 11,500 levels, the next logical target can be projected up to 12,200 for the indices.

What can lead the indices?

In line with major indices, Bank Nifty also registered a fresh breakout beyond its February 2018 highs of 27,652 levels. This breakout is projecting a bigger target placed around 29,300 levels.

Hence, private banks may still play a critical role in pushing the indices to much higher levels. However, PSU Banks are still lagging behind and they may continue to remain so but at lower levels, they are attracting fresh buying interest.

Hence, on sharp corrections one can selectively look into this space for better trading opportunities. Interestingly, FMCG index remained positive with new life-time highs even in Friday’s session when broader markets were correcting.

Hence, traders shall focus on outperformers from this space which are continuously hitting new highs. Similarly, IT is looking very promising whereas Autos which are almost 10% away from their life highs may become catch-up plays.

What has changed for the Indian market?

a) Boost in political sentiment?

Apart from earnings growth and the tag of the fastest growing economy in the world from IMF, recent political developments also appear to have positively impacted market sentiment.

One of the main concerns among market participants was about forthcoming general elections in 2019 and the unity of the opposition parties which may create uncertain political environment going forward.

But, the recent no-confidence motion against the existing government appears to have proved to be a blessing in disguise to ruling NDA and market at large.

Some of its allies who looked to be drifting away from it through their bitter criticism have chosen not to vote in favour of the motion but to abstain from voting which is nothing but lending indirect support to the ruling NDA.

It smashed the myth of opposition unity thereby hinting at a stable government formation in 2019 as there is no major shift in political alliances.

b. Emerging Markets on the verge of a rally?

India seems to be the sole outperformer among the Emerging Markets as measured by the MSCI Emerging Market Index which is a gauge of 23 economies.

MSCI Emerging Market Index appears to be positioning itself for a relief rally after taking a hit of 18 percent since January 2018 highs of 1,278 to recent June low of 1,038.

After this vertical fall for almost 6 months, this index is moving in an extremely narrow range of 51 points in the last 45 days suggesting a dramatic reduction in the selling pressure which may lead to at least a relief rally.

Besides, the larger trends in this index are suggesting that recent fall from January 2018 highs is only a correction inside the bull market as the last 6 months correction is looking pretty much like a part of the 4th wave.

Correction in terms of Elliot Wave Theory points out that one more leg of up move is pending for this index which should take it beyond January 2018 highs which again shall be positive for Indian markets.

Is INR on the verge of a breakdown?

With Dollar Index trading above its resistance point of 95, INR may come under pressure if the Dollar Index continues to strengthen further and sustains above 96 which may not be good news for Indian markets in the near term.

Technically speaking, if INR trades above 69 levels then it can extend its weakness between 70 and 71 kind of levels which may not go down well with equity markets.

Here are short-term trading ideas which could give 5-8% return:

Mahindra & Mahindra: Buy| Target: Rs 1020| Stop Loss: Rs 927| Return 8%

With new lifetime highs of 953 in last Friday’s session, this counter appears to be on the verge of a fresh breakout from its contracting structure in which it was moving since May 2018 after registering highs of 933.

Hence, momentum shall pick up the pace once it registers a sustainable close above 950 levels. In such a scenario we can project a target of Rs 1,020.

Hence, positional traders are advised to buy into this counter for the said targets with a stop below 927 on a closing basis.

Bharat Petroleum: Buy| Target: Rs 429| Stop Loss: Rs 380| Return 7%

For the last couple of sessions, this counter appears to be moving in a range of 404 – 384 levels and looks ripe for a breakout from this range. Hence,

positional traders in anticipation of such a breakout shall go long for a target of 429 and a stop of 380.

Asian Paints: Buy| Target: Rs 1490| Stop Loss: Rs 1390| Return 5%

After the recent correction from the highs of Rs 1490, this counter appears to have posted bottom around recent lows of Rs 1394.

As price patterns are slowly shaping up in a positive fashion one can buy into this counter for a test of lifetime highs placed around Rs 1490. A stop suggested for this trade is 1390.

MORE WILL UPDATE SOON!!