Stocks picks of the day: 11,400-11,450 likely to act as key resistance for Nifty

Any decisive break below 11,300 could add further selling pressure in Nifty.

After a volatile trade session on July 23rd, Nifty indices ended the day in the negative zone for the fourth consecutive session and closed well below the 11,350 mark, dragged by banking, auto and pharma counters.

On the derivative front, 11,400 levels would be a crucial level from expiry point of view as call writers are still holding the open interest of nearly 35 lakh shares in 11,400 strikes.

However, any decisive break below 11,300 could add further selling pressure in Nifty. On the technical front, the 200-days exponential moving average is likely to act as crucial support for the index.

The overall breadth of the market is slightly bearish as of now and we expect that any technical bounce should be used to create fresh short positions.

On the technical front, on the upside, 11,400-11,450 would be key resistance for Nifty with the current trend moving towards 11,200-11,150 levels.

Here is a list of top three stocks which could give 7-13 percent return in the next three to four weeks:

Power Grid Corporation of India: Buy| Target: Rs 224| Stop Loss: Rs 199| Upside 7 percent

After witnessing a breakout above Rs 200, the stock has been consolidating in the range of Rs 200-210 from the last four weeks.

On the daily as well as weekly charts, the prices are trading well above its short and long term moving averages along with steady buying at lower levels.

This week we have observed a fresh breakout into the prices above Rs 210 levels after prolonged consolidation which could trigger follow-up buying in the stock.Traders can accumulate the stock in the range of Rs 208-211 for the upside target of Rs 224 levels, and a stop loss below Rs 199.

Garden Reach Shipbuilders & Engineers: Buy| Target: Rs 147| Stop Loss: Rs 120| Upside 13 percent

The stock has been trading consistently with the formation of higher top and higher bottom on the daily interval. However, from the last two months, some consolidation has been witnessed into the price in the broader range of Rs 115-120.The stock gave a fresh breakout this week above the consolidation zone along with larger volumes which are a positive sign. Traders can accumulate the stock in the range of Rs 130-132 for the upside target of Rs 147 levels, and a stop loss below Rs 120.

Thermax: Buy| Target: Rs 1222| Stop Loss: Rs 1,020| Upside 11 percent

After taking support at its 200-days exponential moving average (EMA) on the daily interval, the stock took a 'U' shape recovery and once again surpassed above Rs 1,100 levels.On the broader chart, the stock has also given a break above the ‘Cup & Handle’ pattern which is bullish in nature.

The momentum oscillators at the current juncture are pointing towards a short term consolidation. Traders can accumulate the stock in a range of Rs 1,100-1,105 levels for the upside target of Rs 1,222 levels, and a stop loss above Rs 1,020.

MORE WILL UPDATE SOON!!

Ashish Kacholia raises stake in 6 companies, keeps it constant in 13

If you are a risk-taker, then a sneak peek into his portfolio for the June quarter will reveal plenty of stocks that hold the potential to deliver good returns.

Ashish Kacholia, an expert at spotting hidden treasures in the small and mid-cap universe, increased stake in six companies during the June quarter and kept it constant in 13, as per the shareholding data as of July 22. He also reduced stake in three companies.

Six companies in which Kacholia increased stake are DFM Foods, KPIT Technologies, Majesco, Poly Medicure, Vaibhav Global and NIIT Ltd.

Stocks of four of the above-mentioned companies have given a positive return in 2019 so far. The other two, however, are down over 20 percent year-to-date.

If you are a risk-taker, then a sneak peek into his portfolio for the June quarter will reveal plenty of stocks that hold the potential to deliver good returns.

 Seven of the 22 companies in which Ashish Kacholia tweaked his stake in the April-June period. The table also lists 13 companies in which he kept his stake constant. The list is not exhaustive and includes only those companies in which Kacholia holds over 1 percent stake as of July 22.

  

Kacholia reduced stake in three companies in June quarter—CHD Developers, Beta Drugs and Pokarna.

Stock price of CHD Developer has fallen nearly 70 percent so far in 2019. The company is among the top builders in Delhi-NCR and Haryana.

In Beta Drugs and Pokarna, Kacholia either exited or reduced the stock below 1 percent in June quarter.

He kept his stake constant in 13 companies for the quarter ended June all of which have given negative return so far in 2019. They include Acrysil, Birlasoft, GHCL, Hikal, IFB Industries, Mirc Electronics, Mold-Tek Packaging, Nocil, Shaily Engineering, V2 Retail, GTPL, Mastek and Vishnu Chemicals.

MORE WILL UPDATE SOON!!

Gold dips on firmer dollar, profit-taking; focus on ECB outcome

The European Central Bank is meeting later in the day, followed by the U.S. Federal Reserve next Tuesday-Wednesday.

    

Gold prices eased on Thursday as the U.S. dollar hovered near multi-week highs, while some investors locked-in profits ahead of major central bank meetings this month.

The European Central Bank is meeting later in the day, followed by the U.S. Federal Reserve next Tuesday-Wednesday.

Spot gold was down 0.2% at $1,422.80 per ounce, as of 0303 GMT. U.S. gold futures were down 0.1% at $1,422.90.

From last three days, gold prices have been range-bound. Some money managers are starting to shut some positions to prepare for the Fed meeting, and also the ECB decision coming out today.

Before the key events happen, people like to take in some profits because nobody knows what is going to happen. Some might capitalise on volatility to push prices slightly lower and buy back after the dip. Overall, on the long-term we are still bullish on gold.

Weighing down gold prices, the U.S. dollar edged near a two-month high against a basket of major currencies on Thursday. A stronger dollar makes gold costlier for holders of other currencies.

Investor focus shifted to the ECB meeting due later in the day and a widely expected interest rate cut from the Fed next week, which are expected to dictate the tempo for currencies and bond yields in coming months.

Lower U.S. interest rates put pressure on the dollar and bond yields, increasing the appeal of non-yielding bullion.

Further boosting hopes of lower interest rates, a series of purchasing manager index (PMI) readings in the United States and Europe on Wednesday came in weaker than expected.

In the United States, data showed manufacturing activity slowed to a 10-year low in early July with production volumes and purchases falling.

Gold prices have climbed more than 12% or $150, since touching its 2019 low of $1,265.85 in early May, driven by dovish outlook from major central banks, signs of the U.S. economy losing steam and an escalation in tensions the Middle East.

"The gold rally will be vulnerable to the rhetoric of central banks, as their actions have for the most part been priced into the asset," Alfonso Esparza, a senior market analyst at OANDA, said in a note.

Meanwhile, holdings of SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, dropped 0.11% to 822.25 tonnes on Wednesday from Tuesday.

Spot gold remains neutral in a narrow range of $1,412-$1,427 per ounce, according to Reuters technical analyst Wang Tao.

Silver dropped 0.6% to $16.49 per ounce, after hitting over a one-year high of $16.64 in the previous session.

Platinum rose 0.3% to $878.21 an ounce, its highest since May 7, while palladium edged up 0.1% to $1,541.07, after touching a one-week high earlier in the session.

MORE WILL UPDATE SOON!!

RBI to cut rates again in August as doves prevail: Poll

If the RBI does cut rates next month, it will be the most aggressive amongst dovish central banks in Asia. The last time the RBI delivered so many back-to-back cuts was after the global financial crisis over a decade ago, when most major central banks went on a cutting spree to revive economic growth.

   

The Reserve Bank of India is set to cut interest rates in August for the fourth meeting in a row, according to a Reuters poll of economists, a majority of whom said risks to their already-modest growth forecasts were skewed more to the downside.

If the RBI does cut rates next month, it will be the most aggressive amongst dovish central banks in Asia. The last time the RBI delivered so many back-to-back cuts was after the global financial crisis over a decade ago, when most major central banks went on a cutting spree to revive economic growth.

Almost 80% of 66 economists in the July 17-24 poll expected the RBI to cut its benchmark repo rate by 25 basis points to 5.50% at the Aug. 7 meeting. Three respondents predicted a 50 basis points cut and the remaining 10 forecast policy on hold.

"It is baked in the cake. They are going to cut rates in August and again later, mainly due to low growth and weak inflation," said Gareth Leather, senior Asia economist at Capital Economics.

India's inflation has remained below the central bank's medium-term target of 4% for almost a year and is not expected to rise significantly above that until at least 2021.

The poll's findings support RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das' recent comments about the central bank's accommodative stance and suggests further easing.

Indeed, following next month's expected move, the next rate cut is seen in early 2020, after which the RBI is forecast to keep rates on hold at 5.25% through to end-2020.

Yet despite three interest rate cuts this year and expectations for more, India's growth outlook was downgraded in the latest poll compared to the previous quarterly economic survey in April.

Asia's third-largest economy expanded at 5.8% year-on-year in the January-March quarter, its slowest pace in five years and losing its title to China as the fastest-growing economy. India is now forecast to grow in the range of 6.3% to 7.2% each quarter through to end-March 2021.

The risks to the more modest growth forecasts for this fiscal year were skewed more to the downside, said a majority of economists who answered an additional question.

Annual growth forecasts were lowered to 6.8% for this fiscal year from 7.2% in the previous poll. That is a tad lower than the International Monetary Fund's latest growth projection of 7.0% for this year.

"India's economy continues to show weak growth momentum. We believe that while recovery is nascent, maturity is still a far way off," said Rini Sen, India economist at ANZ.

"The impact of easy liquidity and dovish monetary policy is gradually flowing through. In the absence of a substantial fiscal push, however, more is needed on the monetary side."

When asked whether the RBI should consider core inflation instead of retail inflation as the main measure for its monetary policy framework, a majority of economists said no, although nearly 30% of respondents said it should be.

"Core inflation is a better measure for underlying price pressures than the headline rate is. So, it should give a better indication of where the economy is in terms of the economic cycle..

"Food and fuel prices are very volatile and they don't say much about the demand on the ground."

MORE WILL UPDATE SOON!!

ICICI Prudential jumps 4% after June quarter results; Morgan Stanley maintains rating

The company's net premium income was up 14.2 percent at Rs 6,208.1 crore against Rs 5,437.8 crore.

 

Share price of ICICI Prudential Life Insurance Company gained 4 percent in the early trade on July 25 after its quarterly results.

The company's Q1FY20 net profit rose 1.2 percent to Rs 284.9 crore against Rs 281.6 crore in the same quarter last year.

The value of new business margin increased to 21 percent from 17 percent, while value of new business jumped 27 percent to Rs 309 crore versus Rs 244 crore, YoY.

The company's net premium income was up 14.2 percent at Rs 6,208.1 crore against Rs 5,437.8 crore.

Morgan Stanley has maintained overweight rating on the stock with a target price at Rs 450 per share.

The research house expects premium growth to recover through the year with help from favourable base and expect VNB growth to be sustained in 20-25 percent range over the next three years.

It sees strong growth in protection.

At 0928 hours, ICICI Prudential Life Insurance Company was quoting at Rs 391.50, up Rs 9.25, or 2.42 percent on the BSE.

MORE WILL UPDATE SOON!!

D-Street Buzz: Bank Nifty in green led by IndusInd Bank; Bharti Infratel jumps 3%, VIX falls

The top gainers from NSE include Cipla, Bharti Infratel, IndusInd Bank, Bajaj Auto and UltraTech Cement while the top losers are Coal India, Tata Motors, Indian Oil Corporation, Mahindra & Mahindra and JSW Steel.

 

After five days of continuous fall, the Indian stock market is trading in the green with Nifty up 52 points at 11,323 while the Sensex added 188 points and is trading at 38,035 level.

A 10:50 hrs, Nifty Pharma is the outperforming sector, up over a percent led by Cipla, Lupin, Divis Labs, Sun Pharma, Dr Reddy's Labs, Glenmark Pharma, Cadila Healthcare and Aurobindo Pharma.

Bank Nifty is also trading in the green, the top gainers are IndusInd Bank, HDFC Bank, IDFC First Bank and Axis Bank. However, PNB, RBL Bank and YES Bank are trading in the red.

From the FMCG space, the top gainers are United Breweries, Britannia Industries, Jubilant Foodworks, Tata Global Beverage, Hindustan Unilever and Marico.

Selective infra stocks are trading in the green led by Bharti Infratel, GMR Infra, Reliance Infra, Power Grid, Tata Communications and Bharti Airtel among others.

Nifty Metal is down half a percent dragged by NMDC, Tata Steel, Coal India, Jindal Steel & Power, Hindalco Industries and NALCO.

India VIX is down 4.70 percent and is trading at 12.16 levels.

The top gainers from NSE include Cipla, Bharti Infratel, IndusInd Bank, Bajaj Auto and UltraTech Cement while the top losers are Coal India, Tata Motors, Indian Oil Corporation, Mahindra & Mahindra and JSW Steel.

The most active stocks are Shriram Transport Finance, Bajaj Finance, HDFC Bank, Reliance Industries and YES Bank.

222 stocks have hit 52-week low on BSE including GE T&D India, Future Consumer, Duke Offshore, McLeod Russel, Lumax Auto Tech, Opto Circuits, Automotive Axle, Shoppers Stop, Tata Elxsi, Tata Sponge Iron, Reliance Naval, Titagarh Wagons, Andhra Cements, Bajaj Corp, M&M, Tata Steel and Force Motors among others.

885 stocks advanced and 727 declined while 484 remained unchanged on the NSE. On the BSE, 1059 stocks advanced, 856 declined and 100 remained unchanged.

MORE WILL UPDATE SOON!!

Market Live: Sensex off day's high, Nifty holds 11,300 ahead of F&O expiry

On the sectoral front, except IT and energy, all other sectoral indices are trading higher led by the pharma, FMCG, auto and infra.

Canara Bank slips 4%: Shares of Canara Bank shed 4 percent on July 25 as research house Morgan Stanley remained underweight on stock with a target of Rs 220 per share.

The company reported a 17 percent year-on-year growth in June quarter profit on lower provisions, with improvement in asset quality on sequentially.

Nucleus Software announces the launch of the latest version of its transaction banking solution FinnAxia 6.5

Rupee trades flat: The Indian rupee is trading flat at 68.99 per dollar on Thursday versus previous close 68.98.

Sensex off day's high:

Benchmark indices were off their day's high on profit booking at higher levels which indicated that due to weak market sentiment, traders might have used 'sell on rise' strategy.

The BSE Sensex was up 178.29 points at 38,025.94 and the Nifty50 gained 50.20 points at 11,321.50.

MORE WILL UPDATE SOON!!