We remain overweight on discretionary consumption theme with stocks like Safari Industries, Bata, Blue Star and Parag Milk Foods.
After subdued performance till June, the rally in market started in July and is continuing in August. This helped the benchmark indices cross new milestones (38,000 on the Sensex and nearly 11,500 on the Nifty), driven by stable to better-than-expected earnings growth in the June quarter; though it corrected in the past two consecutive sessions on global concerns.
We feel any decline due to external factors would be short-lived and traders should continue with "buy on dips" approach. In fact, it's healthy to have such corrective phase as it eliminates weak hands.
We suggest to keep close eye on global developments along with prevailing earnings season for cues.
To believe that the market may be in wait-and-watch mode till general elections 2019, but this period could also offer opportunities to cherry pick some quality equity investment.
The research house recommend 22 top picks as good bets to utilize this opportunity which are offering healthy returns in the next 1 year. All of these top picks are backed by sound business model and are likely to do well in the coming years.
Here is the list of 22 stocks which could return up to 58% over a period of one year:
Dewan Housing
We expect the company’s loan growth to remain 29 percent over next two years and earnings growth is likely to be more than 29 percent.
We maintain "buy" on the stock with a target price of Rs 720.
Safari Industries
Safari Industries is the third largest branded player in the Indian luggage industry. Post the management change in 2012, Safari has grown its revenue by 6x in the last 7 years.
We expect its revenue to grow by a CAGR of around 25/40 percent in revenue/earnings over FY2018-20E on the back of growth in its recently introduced new products.
Mahindra & Mahindra
We expect Mahindra & Mahindra to report net revenue CAGR of around 13 percent to around Rs 62,235 crore over FY2018-20E mainly due to healthy growth in automobile segment like utility vehicles (on the back of new launches and facelift of some models) and strong growth in Tractors segment driven by strong brand recall and improvement in rural sentiment.
Further on the bottomline front, we expect CAGR of around 18 percent to Rs 5,600 crore over the same period on the back of margin improvement. Thus, we recommend an Accumulate rating on the stock with target price of Rs 1,050.
Blue Star
BSL is one of the largest air-conditioning companies in India. With a mere 3 percent penetration level of ACs versus 25 percent in China, the overall outlook for the room air-conditioner (RAC) market in India is favourable.
Aided by increasing contribution from the unitary products, we expect the overall topline to post revenue CAGR of around 13 percent over FY2018-20E and margins to improve from 5.8 percent in FY2018 to 6.2 percent in FY2020E.
We recommend a Buy rating on the stock.
Siyaram Silk Mills
Going forward, we expect SSML to report a net sales CAGR of around 14 percent to around Rs 2,272 crore and adjusted net profit CAGR of around 14 percent to Rs 150 crore over FY2018-20E on back of market leadership in blended fabrics, strong brand building, wide distribution channel, strong presence in tier II and tier III cities and emphasis on latest designs and affordable pricing points.
At the current market price, SSML trades at an inexpensive valuation. We have a buy recommendation on the stock and target price of Rs 851.
Maruti Suzuki
The automobile sector is expected to benefit from the GST implementation.
Due to the favourable business mix, company has also been seeing improvement in the margins. Company has already moved from around 11-12 percent together with higher operating leverage at Gujarat plant, increasing Nexa outlets, and improving business mix, we believe that company has further room to improve its margins.
We have a Buy rating on the stock.
HDFC Bank
We expect the company’s loan growth to remain 22 percent over next two years and earnings growth is likely to be more than 21 percent. We maintain Accumulate on the stock with a target price of Rs 2,350.
Music Broadcast
Capex for 39 licenses have been done for the next 15 years, hence no heavy incremental Capex requirement would emerge.
Moreover, the maintenance capex would be as low as Rs 5-10 crore. This would leave sufficient cash flow to distribute as dividend.
We have a Buy recommendation on the stock and target price of Rs 475.
KEI Industries
KEI’s export (FY18 – 16 percent of revenue) is expected to reach a level 20 percent in next two years with higher order execution from current OB and participation in various international tenders.
We expect a strong around 25 percent growth CAGR over FY2018-20 in exports. We expect KEI to report net revenue CAGR of around 16 percent to around Rs 4,646 crore and net profit CAGR of around 19 percent to Rs 207 crore over FY2018-20E. Hence we have a Buy rating on the stock.
GIC Housing Finance
GICHF has healthy capital adequacy, and is seeing an increase in demand for home loans.
We expect the GICHF's loan growth to grow at a CAGR of 23 percent over next two years and RoA/RoE to improve from 1.8/20.3 percent in FY18 to 1.9/23 percent in FY20E. We have a Buy rating on the stock.
Yes Bank
YES Bank currently trades at 2.4x times FY20E Book Value, which we believe is reasonable for a bank with high-growth traction, improving CASA and prospect of improving NIM.
Matrimony.com
We expect MCL to report net revenue CAGR of around 15 percent to around Rs 450 crore over FY2018-20E mainly due to strong growth in online matchmaking and marriage related services coupled by its strong brand recall and large user database.
On the bottomline front, we expect CAGR of around 15 percent to Rs 83 crore over the same period on the back of margin improvement.
RBL Bank
RBL Bank has grown its loan book at healthy CAGR of 56 percent over FY10-18. We expect it to grow at 30 percent over FY18-20E.
The bank currently trades at 2.9x its FY2020E price to book value, which we believe is reasonable for a bank in a high growth phase with stable asset quality.
Parag Milk Foods
Parag Milk Foods is one of the leading dairy products companies in India. The company has been successful in creating strong brands like GO, Gowardhan and in introducing new products like Whey Protein. It has become the 2nd player in processed cheese (after Amul) in a short span of 10 years and commands 33 percent market share.
We expect Parag to report net revenue/PAT CAGR of 18/36 percent respectively over FY2018-20E.
ICICI Bank
The gradual improvement in recovery of bad loans would reduce credit costs that would help to improve return ratio.
The strength of the liability franchise, shift in loan mix towards retail assets and better rated companies, and improvement in bad loans would be a key trigger for multiple expansion. We recommend a Buy rating on the stock, with a price target of Rs 416.
Aditya Birla Capital
We expect financialisation of savings, increasing penetration in Insurance & Mutual funds would ensure steady growth.
Further, Banca tie-up with HDFC Bank, DBS and LVB should restore insurance business. We recommend a Buy rating on the stock, with a price target of Rs 218.
Aurobindo Pharmaceuticals
We expect Aurobindo to report net revenue CAGR of around 13 percent & net profit to grow at around 5 percent CAGR during FY2018-20E, due to increased R&D expenditure.
However, valuations of the company are cheap versus its peers and own fair multiples of 17-18x. We recommend Buy rating.
GMM Pfaudler
GMM Pfaudler is the Indian market leader in glass-lined (GL) steel equipment used in corrosive chemical processes of agrochemicals, specialty chemical and pharma sector.
GMM is likely to maintain over 20 percent growth trajectory over FY18-20 backed by capacity expansion and cross selling of non-GL products to its clients.
Jindal Steel & Power
Owing to continuous demand of steel from infrastructure, housing and auto sectors along with limited addition of steel capacity in near term and favorable government policies augur well for JSPL to perform well going forward, we expect JSPL’s utilisation to improve to 80-85 percent by FY19.
JSPL is trading at attractive valuation to its peer, we value the stock based on asset based approach of Steel segment on EV/Tonne basis and Power segment on EV/MW basis.
Shriram Transport Finance
SHTF's primary focus is on financing pre-owned commercial vehicles. CV/LCV sales grew by 20/25 percent in FY18, respectively.
We expect AUM to grow at healthy CAGR of 20 percent over FY2018-20E led by pick up in infra/ construction before 2019 elections, macro revival and Ramping up in rural distribution.
We expect loan book/PAT CAGR of 20/45 percent respectively over FY2018-20E. At 2.2x FY20E ABV, valuation appears reasonable.
Bata India
We expect Bata to report net revenue CAGR of around 16 percent to around Rs 3,555 crore over FY2018-20E mainly due increasing brand consciousness amongst Indian consumers, new product launches and focus on women's segment (high growth segment).
Further, on the bottom-line front, we expect CAGR of around 19 percent to Rs 323 crore over the same period on the back of margin improvement (increasing premium product sales).
Thus, we initiate coverage on Bata India with Accumulate recommendation and target price of Rs 1,007.
Amber Enterprises
Amber Enterprises India is the market leader in the room air conditioners (RAC) outsourced manufacturing space in India.
We expect Amber to report consolidated revenue/PAT CAGR of 28/51 percent respectively over FY2018-20E.
Its growing manufacturing capabilities and scale put it in a sweet spot to capture the under penetrated RAC market in India.
MORE WILL UPDATE SOON!!
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