Our VGuard Cash BTST Hits Its Target on The Go.....

  

On 16th August We had given a BTST call to  VGuard ( Cash ) around 228 for the target of  334

Look at the call as Today it made a high of 235.65 and now trading around 234

Patience wins the trade.......

We Booked Full Profit Today around 235

Return of 2.13 Percent 

We Believe in our Research......

Hope You Minted Profit.

This call was given free on our blog and in Our whatsapp group.

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MORE WILL UPDATE SOON!!

Nifty Levels:Nifty for the week (Aug 19, 2019 – Aug 23, 2019)

   

  

NIFTY 50 Index closed the week on negative note loosing -61.85 Points -0.56%

Weekly High: 11145.90

Weekly Low: 10901.6

Weekly Close: 11047.80

 
RESISTANCE 2: 11276

RESISTANCE 1: 11162

SUPPORT 1: 10918

SUPPORT 2: 10787

 
Technically on the daily charts we see minor support on the downside for nifty 50 index lies at 10770 levels, whereas minor resistance on the upside is capped around 11150-11200 levels.

If nifty 50 index breaches minor support on the downside and closes below it we may see fresh break down and index can drag index towards major support on lower side around 10450 and if breaches minor resistance on the upside and closes above it we may see fresh breakout and index can head towards higher levels around 11750

Currently nifty 50 index is trading above 200 days exponential moving average and suggests long term trend is bullish. Analyst predicts range for the week is seen from 11750 on upside and 10450 on downside.

MORE WILL UPDATE SOON!!

Bank Nifty Levels:

   

NIFTY BANK Index closed the week on negative note loosing -214.90 points -0.76%

Weekly High: 28358.85

Weekly Low: 27683.50

Weekly Close: 28217

 
RESISTANCE 2: 28762

RESISTANCE 1: 28489

SUPPORT 1: 27814

SUPPORT 2: 27411

 
Technically on the daily charts we see minor support on the downside for NIFTY BANK index lies at 27700 levels, whereas minor resistance on the upside is capped around 28600-28620 levels.

If NIFTY BANK index breaches minor support on the downside and closes below it we may see fresh break down and index can drag index towards major support on lower side around 27300 and if breaches minor resistance on the upside and closes above it we may see fresh breakout and index can head towards higher levels around 29100.

Currently NIFTY BANK index is trading below 200 days exponential moving average and suggests long term trend is bearish. Analyst predicts range for the week is seen from 29100 on upside and 27300 on downside.

MORE WILL UPDATE SOON!!

Oil prices climb after Saudi oilfield attack, but recession worries drag

Oil is benefiting from an overall optimism that we won't see the doomsday trade war scenario and after a drone attack on oil and gas facilities in Saudi Arabia reminded markets geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are going nowhere anytime soon.

  

Crude oil prices rose on Monday following a weekend attack on a Saudi oil facility by Yemeni separatists and as traders looked for any signs that Sino-US trade tensions could ease.

But price gains were capped by an unusually downbeat OPEC report that stoked concerns about growth in oil demand.

Brent crude was up 64 cents, or about 1.1%, at $59.28 a barrel at 0255 GMT,

U.S. crude was up 55 cents, or 1%, at $55.42 a barrel.

Oil is benefiting from an overall optimism that we won't see the doomsday trade war scenario and after a drone attack on oil and gas facilities in Saudi Arabia reminded markets geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are going nowhere anytime soon," said Edward Moya, senior market analyst at OANDA in New York.

A drone attack by Yemen's Houthi group on an oilfield in eastern Saudi Arabia on Saturday caused a fire at a gas plant, adding to Middle East tensions, but state-run Saudi Aramco said oil production was not affected.

Meanwhile, White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow said trade deputies from the United States and China would speak within 10 days and could advance negotiations over ending a trade battle between the two countries if those talks pan out.

But U.S. President Donald Trump appeared less optimistic than his aides on striking a trade deal with China, saying that while he believed Beijing was ready to come to an agreement, "I'm not ready to make a deal yet.

Concerns about an economic recession continued to weigh on crude prices even as Trump and top White House officials dismissed concerns that U.S. economic growth may be faltering.

Elsewhere, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) cut its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2019 by 40,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 1.10 million bpd and indicated the market would be in slight surplus in 2020.

It is rare for OPEC to give a bearish forward view on the market.

Also weighing on prices, U.S. energy firms this week increased the number of oil rigs operating for the first time in seven weeks despite plans by most producers to cut spending on new drilling this year.

Traders will also be looking out for key manufacturing data due later this week from Europe and the United States, said Michael McCarthy, chief market strategist

MORE WILL UPDATE SOON!!

Analysts downgrade FY20 earnings estimates after poor Q1 show, Citi cuts Sensex target

Citi also said earnings miss was big in Q1 across most sectors with BSE100 earnings falling 1 percent YoY in Q1

  

One of the key reasons for the sharp fall in the market in July-August was dismal June quarter earnings. This elevated the risks of a further downgrade, brokerages said in their review report last week.

All brokerages downgraded earnings estimates as half of the companies they cover missed expectations. As a result, brokerages feel the target for earnings estimates predicted earlier for FY20 is unlikely to be met.

Earnings downgraded across the board. Our coverage universe pre-ex earnings growth is at 5-quarter low Of 0.2 percent. Ex-PSU oil sector, our coverage pre-ex earnings increased 15 percent and ex-oil & gas, metals & financials, our universe pre-ex profit fell 1 percent.

Of 114 companies it covers, 36 percent companies' earnings were below expectations, 15 percent were in-line and 49 percent were above estimates, it added.

The brokerage said earnings downgrades (55 percent of coverage universe) were nearly thrice of the upgrades (19 percent) after June quarter earnings. Hence CLSA cut Nifty earnings for FY20/21 by 5 percent against 3 percent/4 percent by consensus.

The brokerage expects 18 percent earnings growth for FY20 against consensus forecasts of 21 percent.

Citi also said earnings miss was big in Q1 across most sectors with BSE100 earnings falling 1 percent YoY in Q1.

Nifty/Sensex earnings rose 3 percent/13 percent YoY, missing estimates by 4 percent and 10 percent, respectively. Ex-financials earnings declined 17 percent YoY, it added.

The brokerage said 33 percent of BSE100 earnings beat their expectations, but 51 percent missed estimates.

Revenue missed expectations across sectors barring energy, financials and auto. EBITDA missed expectations across sectors barring energy, healthcare and telecom. Earnings missed across all sectors barring energy.

Citi said in FY20, barring few exceptions, earnings are expected to decelerate across sectors and hence, its Nifty FY20 earnings growth expectation stands at 16 percent YoY. As a result, it cut Sensex's target to 39,000 from 39,600.

Citi preference remained for growth visibility, reasonable valuations and defensive appeal.

"Earnings downgrade risks remain elevated. We cut Nifty EPS estimates by 4 percent and its downgrade/upgrade ratio has weakened to 3x," said Motilal Oswal which expects Nifty EPS to grow 16.4 percent in FY20 and 19.7 percent in FY21.

While explaining in detail, the brokerage said 74 percent of earnings cut was driven by SBI, IOC, ONGC, Tata Steel, BPCL and Tata Motors.

ICICI Securities also said the number of downgrades is 3.3x the upgrades. Antique Stock Broking downgraded Nifty EPS by 5.6 percent for FY20 and 3.6 percent for FY21.

"Overall, net profit growth momentum has significantly weakened in Q1 and ex-financials Nifty net profit growth declined 13.1 percent.

But overall analysts are pretty confident that banking and financials are expected to drive earnings going forward as they feel NPA crisis seems to have bottomed out and credit growth is expected to pick up in second half of the current financial year.

Even the big bull of D-Street, Rakesh Jhunjhunwala, in an exclusive interview with CNBC-TV18 last week expressed his concerns about the state of the market, and short-term slowdown in the economy due to NBFC crisis, elections and fiscal situations.

MORE WILL UPDATE SOON!!

Short covering likely to take Nifty higher; deploy Bull Call Spread this week

Considering excessive short accumulation in the index and options data showing intermediate support at 11000 which is likely to hold good, short-covering drive to earlier breakdown level of 11,300-11,350 is possible.

      

A truncated week ended on a modest note with Nifty and Bank Nifty ending lower by 0.5 percent and 0.75 percent, respectively.

Nifty moved in a narrow band of 10,900-11,100. However, buying in last two days helped the index to recover from lows with some long addition.

Auto ancillary, metals, pharma and selective IT stocks saw short accumulation. On the other hand, short covering was seen in banking stocks like Axis Bank, Bank of Baroda.

Implied Volatility for Nifty remained at sub 16 percent level indicating mean reversion to continue further.

Options data for Nifty shows strong accumulation in 10,900-11,000 Puts while Call OI is distributed across strikes from 11,100 to 11,400.

Strong support for the Nifty is placed a tad above 11,000. With no meaningful resistance in close proximity, an up move towards 11,200-11,500 is possible.

Bank Nifty also saw an upward shift in the band as Put writers became active at 28,000 strikes. The highest call OI is placed at 29,000 which would keep the short-term target open till 29,000.

The sentimental indicator like Put Call Ratio (PCR) open interest wise is quoting at 1.21. We saw a reversal from the lower end of the range indicating pessimism has been put to rest. Now, only a move below 1 could see the bearish setup resuming again.

Considering excessive short accumulation in the index and options data showing intermediate support at 11000 which is likely to hold good, short-covering drive to earlier breakdown level of 11,300-11,350 is possible.

Thus, a low-risk strategy Bull Call Spread can be deployed to play this pullback.

Bull Call Spread is a bullish strategy that is executed when the instrument is expected to see a bounce back or move higher.

In this strategy, we need to buy one lower strike Call and sell one higher strike Call to reduce cost. The maximum loss in the strategy is limited to the initial outflow. The maximum profit on this strategy is the difference between the strike less initial outflow.

MORE WILL UPDATE SOON!!

36 stocks return over 100% in 2019, many more multibaggers in making

Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful.

Given the dismal performance of the equity market, it may be ironical but experts feel that 2019 could be the golden year for investments. There are many stocks that are trading at attractive valuations and can turn out to be multi-baggers in years to come.

In recent years, the number of stocks that gave multi-bagger returns has come down. The number of stocks that rose more than 100 percent tanked from 611 in 2017 to 36 in 2019. The number of stocks that gave more than 500 percent return fell from 15 in 2017 to 1 in 2019. And, the number of stocks that rose more than 1,000 percent also reduced from 4 in 2017 to 1 in 2019.

Warren Buffett once said, “Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful.” Most experts suggest this is the time to turn greedy. Market valuations, at an aggregate level, are still not cheap, however many stocks do look attractive.

We think that the current phase of 'risk-off' is likely to last for another quarter. What we are going through is a meaningful correction. It is hard to pick a bottom, but typically buying stocks during these corrections tend to be the right choice.

“After the trough in the last three corrections, equities were up 28 percent one year after the date of the trough. Midcaps have done better, up 39 percent during similar periods. Our opinion is that this would be a good time to buy stocks with an investment horizon of one year or longer.

The investor sentiment has turned sour in 2019 thanks to fears of a slowdown in the economy. Trade war tensions between the US and China is not helping either.

For the sentiment to improve, private capex has to pick up. The Reserve Bank of India reduced rates by 35 bps earlier in August to kick start the economy but the results are still some time away. Hence, investment should be made with a time horizon of 3-4 years.

Given a three to five-year time horizon, stock nibbling won’t be such a bad idea, especially if done in a staggered manner.

What are the parameters to look for in a multi-bagger?

Finding a multi-bagger stock is tough. Investors should note that stocks that turn out to be multi-baggers could be due to economic factors, industry growth trends, regulatory changes, and fundamentals of the company.

Except the fundamentals of the company, all other factors are mostly unpredictable. Hence, the focus should be on the fundamentals.

Stocks which end up being multi-baggers would be companies 1) that are facing difficulties, trade at low valuations, and are likely to experience a turnaround, and 2) businesses that are in sectors which are experiencing extremely strong growth.

In the current market environment, we can find companies that are experiencing difficulties, for eg. auto and capital goods. Multibagger stocks would mostly be from the mid and small-cap space that are likely to outperform once the markets are in 'risk-on mode

MORE WILL UPDATE SOON!!