26th July Strategy:
Global: Neutral
FII: Neutral
DII: Neutral
F&O: Neutral
Sentiment: Negative
Trend: Negative
Nifty 11225-11275 small day range, Medium range 11200-11300. Bigger Range 11100-11350
BankNifty 28925-29125 small day range, Medium range 28850-29250, Bigger range 28500-29350
Fresh downside risk opens if Nifty trades below 11200 n BankNifty below 28800
For Existing Long Positions:
Nifty intraday n closing SL 11200
BankNifty intraday n closing SL 28800
For Existing Short Positions:
Nifty intraday n Closing SL 11375
BankNifty intraday n Closing SL 29300
For New Positions:
Sell Nifty in 11325-11350 range:
SL 11400 Tgt 11300, 11275, 11250
Buy Nifty near 11200:
SL 11175 Tgt 11250, 11275
Sell BankNifty in 29200-29250 range:
SL 29350 TGT 29125, 29075, 28950
Buy BankNifty in 28850-28900 range:
SL 28800 TGT 29050, 29200, 29250
PCR 1.37
VIX 12.63
SGX Nifty is at 11,282, down 19 points. Expect pull back today as over sold conditions set up broader markets for a rally.
Nifty saw another weak day after a solid start with short covering pulling the indices to almost 100 points higher in the morning. Expiry of derivative contracts took its toll as volatility and weak sentiment dragged the index lower for the 6th consecutive day to end down 20 points. The undertone seems weak as consumption stocks and blue chips NBFCs bear the brunt of heavy foreign selling. Autos, metals and PSU banks were the main losers while pharma and IT led the gainers.
US Market: US markets close with losses on the back of reaction to earnings with profit booking emerging after scaling fresh all time highs. US$ witnesses strength which sees bond yields rise to 2.10%. Oil prices continue to trade range bound closer to Brent at US$63. Federal Reserve rate cut will set the tone for markets globally with 25 basis points cut built in and guidance being the key.
Asian Market: Asian indices opened weak with the Japanese Nikkei trading lower by nearly 100 points.The Asian indices have been seeing very range bound trade with a negative bias as growth numbers are seeing visible threat of slowdown with consumption spending at the lowest in last 3 years. For today, expect weekend blues to see quiet trade as all attention shifts to US Central bank on rates.
Important results today: Maruti, Bajaj Auto, Punjab National Bank, Vedanta, JSW Steel
Jubilant Life Sciences, Mangalam Drugs, Music Broadcast, Teamlease Services, KPIT Technologies will be announcing its Q1 numbers.
Quarterly Results Quarterly results that are expected today include Maruti Suzuki India, Bajaj Auto, Punjab National Bank, Vedanta, JSW Steel, Tilaknagar Industries, Supreme Petrochem, Usha Martin, Polycab India, ABB India, Oriental Carbon, Elecon Engineering Company, Astec LifeSciences, Plastiblends India, Atul, Kalyani Forge, Balaji Amines, Confidence Petroleum India, VST Industries, Puravankara.
Jubilant Life Sciences, Mangalam Drugs, Music Broadcast, Teamlease Services, KPIT Technologies, Aarti Drugs, Vodafone Idea, DIC India, Indraprastha Medical Corporation, Bajaj Holdings, Alicon Castalloy, Mahindra Lifespace Developers will be announcing its Q1 numbers.
Here is the street expectation for the companies:
Maruti Suzuki Consensus estimates for Q1FY20E:
Revenue – Rs 19,373cr, down 14 yoy, 18% yoy volume decline due to weak demand, expect ASP to improve on qoq basis.
EBITDA – Rs 2,129cr, down by 36.5% yoy; due to negative operating leverage, higher discounts and weak INR.
EBITDA Margin – 11%, contraction of 390bps yoy.
Profit – Rs1,634cr, down 17% yoy; higher investment income to limit PAT decline, despite an estimated 36.5% yoy fall in EBITDA.
Bajaj Auto Consensus estimates for Q1FY20E:
Revenue – Rs7,460cr, flat yoy, mere 2% yoy volume growth amid weak demand environment, expect overall ASP to fall 3.5% qoq.
EBITDA – Rs1137cr, down by 11% yoy; due to aggressive pricing in 2Ws and weak mix.
EBITDA Margin – 15.2%, contraction of 202bps yoy.
Profit – Rs1,093cr, down 2% yoy; higher investment income to limit PAT decline to 2% yoy, despite estimated 11% yoy fall in EBITDA.
JSW Steel consensus estimates for Q1FY20E:
Consolidated Revenue – Rs21,053cr, flat on yoy basis owing to flattish volumes and slightly lower realisations.
EBITDA – Rs3,719cr, down 27.2% yoy, on lower realisations and higher ore prices.
EBITDA Margin – 18.1%, contraction of ~680bps yoy
PAT – Rs1,094cr, down 53.8% yoy
MORE WILL UPDATE SOON!!
