Performance//S&P 500 Analysis/DOW 30 Analysis /Nasdaq 100 Analysis/Indian Market Analysis

PERFORMANCE:

Last week we had given call to buy Ashok Leyland (future) around 116.50--116.00 for target of 120--122 with Stop Loss of 113.I am glad to tell you that both our target were hit today and we were able to mint profit.We booked profit of Rs 38500 on 1 lot or return of 4.72% in 1 lot in just 1 week.Hope our call proved fruitful.

Today we also recommended to buy Bharti Airtel (Future) around 494 for target of 500 with stop loss of 490.Our called proved fruitful again and we were able to book profit of Rs 10200 in 1 Lot or return of 1.21% with a day in 1 lot.Hope you booked profit.

Today we also recommended to buy Kridhan Infra (cash) around 100 for target of 105--109 with stop loss of 97.Our called proved fruitful again and we were able to book profit and made  return of  5% with in a day.Hope you booked profit.


We had also recommended to buy SREI Infra (cash) around 105--104 for target of 109 with stop loss of 102.Our called proved fruitful again and we missed our target by a whisker  of 1.05 as it made high of 107.95.Hope you were still able to mint profit still.

Rest all call remains intact.....Maintain Stop loss and patience is the key

S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 Forecast

S&P 500

The S&P 500 was relatively quiet during the trading session on Friday, as we had a shortened day on Wall Street. By breaking above the 2600 level though, it looks as if we are ready to go higher, and I think that short-term pullbacks will be nice buying opportunities for a market that has obviously been in an uptrend. By breaking above the 2600 level, we have cleared a bit of resistance, and I suspect that traders will continue to go long as we open on Monday. Longer-term, we will go to the 2650 level, and I think that the 2590 level underneath will be the bottom of significant support. With the US dollar falling in value, it’s likely that the S&P 500 will continue to go higher based upon the cheapness of US exports.

The 24-hour exponential moving average continues to offer significant support dynamically, every time we break above a, and technically speaking, it looks as if we are ready to go higher but we are likely needing to find value on those pullbacks. If we were to break down below the 2490 handle, I think that the market probably could go as low as 2580 next, but we should find even more support in that general region. In general, I am bullish of stock markets overall, as there seems to be a lot of algorithmic trading taken advantage of the bullish pressure that we have seen. Every time we dip, the buyers come rushing back, and quite frankly on Wall Street, it’s not uncommon to see the market open lower in the morning, and to find buyers later in the day. Until this pattern stops, I don’t see this market breaking down anytime soon. Buying continues to be the best way forward.

Dow Jones 30

The Dow Jones 30 initially went sideways during the trading session on Friday, popping just a bit, pulling back again, and then finding enough support at the 23,500 level to rally significantly. Because of this, it’s likely that the market will continue to find buyers underneath, and I think that the short-term pullbacks are going to continue to be picked up by algorithmic traders as well, as a “buy every dip” mentality has taken over Wall Street. The 23,500 level is very important, and if we break down below there I think we could drop another 250 points rather quickly. Overall, I think that we will eventually reach towards the 24,000 handle above, which of course has a certain amount of psychological importance as well. The Dow Jones 30 continues to plow along to the upside, and therefore I have no interest in shorting.

 

NASDAQ 100

By breaking above the 6400 level late during the trading session on Friday, the NASDAQ 100 looks very likely to continue the uptrend and go looking towards the 6450 level above. I think that pullbacks continue to find support at the 6380 handle, and that value hunters will be attracted to the NASDAQ 100 as it has shown so much in the way of resiliency. The stochastic oscillator is in the overbought area on the hourly chart, so a short-term pullback could present itself rather quickly. However, that pullback offers value, and if we can stay above the 6380 handle, there’s no reason to think about shorting this market. Longer-term, I anticipate that the 6500 level is going to be targeted, but that’s going to take a significant amount of time to get to. This will be especially true as we head into the holidays.

 

   

MARKET UPDATE:

Late recovery helps Sensex, Nifty close higher for 8th consecutive session

--The broader markets outperformed benchmarks with the Nifty Midcap rising half a percent. The market breadth was positive as about three shares advanced for every two shares declining on the BSE.--

--Equity benchmarks managed to extend uptrend for the eighth consecutive session Monday, with the Nifty reclaiming 10,400 level intraday led by late rebound in banking & financials. The market opened lower after the S&P reaffirmed India rating and weak Asian cues, but recouped losses in last hour of trade.--

--The 30-share BSE Sensex rose 45.20 points to 33,724.44 and the 50-share NSE Nifty gained 9.80 points at 10,399.50.--

--The market continued its uptrend but there could be volatility in coming sessions ahead of expiry of November derivative contracts, experts suggest.--

--The broader markets outperformed benchmarks with the Nifty Midcap rising half a percent to end at record closing high. The market breadth was positive as about three shares advanced for every two shares declining on the BSE.--

--Nifty Bank also ended at fresh record closing high of 25,891.95, up 0.44 percent. Axis Bank was up 2.55 percent as The Essar Group will repay debt of various financial institutions including Axis Bank through BPO business (Aegis) sale proceeds.--

--HDFC Bank, SBI, Kotak Mahindra Bank and Yes Bank gained 0.4-1 percent.--

--L&T rose half a percent as its construction subsidiary has bagged orders worth Rs 3,572 crore under transportation infrastructure, metallurgical & material handling, power transmission & distribution, and buildings & factories segments.--

--Oil India was up 1.3 percent and ONGC rallied 1.7 percent. Credit Suisse upgraded Oil India to outperform from neutral & raised target price to Rs 425 while it maintained outperform rating on ONGC with increased target price at Rs 220 (From Rs 190 per share).-

--"Oil around USD 60 per barrel is a sweet spot for both ONGC and Oil India with strong earnings and low subsidy risk in FY19," the research house said while raising EPS estimates for ONGC/OIL for FY18/19 by 8/2 percent and 10/9 percent, respectively.--

--Oil marketing companies - HPCL, BPCL and IOC were under pressure, falling 0.5-1.5 percent on marketing margin concerns.--

--NTPC, Bharti Infratel and Zee Entertainment among others gained 2-3 percent whereas Infosys, Tata Motors, Adani Ports, IndusInd Bank and Ambuja Cements fell around a percent each.--

--Mindtree jumped 7 percent as Credit Suisse upgraded the stock to outperform and increased target price on earnings growth hope.--

--Gujarat Heavy Chemicals surged 10 percent as DSP Blackrock Mutual Fund bought 9,50,528 equity shares at Rs 272 per share through a block deal on Friday.--

--Renewable energy stocks like Inox Wind, Suzlon Energy and Swelect Energy gained 6-11 percent while real estate stocks - Indiabulls Real, Mahindra Lifespace, Nitesh Estates and Peninsula Land surged 6-18 percent.--

MORE WILL UPDATE SOON!!

Intraday Calls

FUTURE CALLS:

Buy DLF (Future) around 231 Target 234--238+ Stop Loss  228 Lot Size 5000 

Buy Adani Ports(Future) around 398 Target 404--406 Stop Loss 396 Lot Size 2500

Buy Bharti Airtel( Future) around 494 Target 500+ Stop Loss 490 Lot Size 1700

Buy Yes Bank (Future) around 315--312 Target 318--321 Stop Loss 310 Lot Size 1750

OPTION CALLS:

Buy Century Textile 1360 CE (Option) Premium 15--13 Target 20--30+ Stop Loss 10 Lot Size 550 

Buy Yes Bank 315 CE (Option) Premium around 4 Target 10--12+ Stop Loss 1.50 Stop Loss 1750

CASH CALLS:

Buy SREI Infra (cash) around 105--104 Target 109 Stop Loss 102 

Buy Kridhan Infra (cash) around 100  Target 105--109 Stop Loss 97

If Target Not Hit on Intraday basis then one can surely carry position as all mentioned stocks are stable on charts.One Should maintain strict Stop Loss in mentioned positions."(Buy on DIP on all positions)"

MORE WILL UPDATE SOON!!

Nifty & Market Update/Performance/S&P 500,NASDAQ 100 Analysis

S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 Forecast

S&P 500

The S&P 500 was relatively quiet during the trading session on Friday, as we had a shortened day on Wall Street. By breaking above the 2600 level though, it looks as if we are ready to go higher, and I think that short-term pullbacks will be nice buying opportunities for a market that has obviously been in an uptrend. By breaking above the 2600 level, we have cleared a bit of resistance, and I suspect that traders will continue to go long as we open on Monday. Longer-term, we will go to the 2650 level, and I think that the 2590 level underneath will be the bottom of significant support. With the US dollar falling in value, it’s likely that the S&P 500 will continue to go higher based upon the cheapness of US exports.

The 24-hour exponential moving average continues to offer significant support dynamically, every time we break above a, and technically speaking, it looks as if we are ready to go higher but we are likely needing to find value on those pullbacks. If we were to break down below the 2490 handle, I think that the market probably could go as low as 2580 next, but we should find even more support in that general region. In general, I am bullish of stock markets overall, as there seems to be a lot of algorithmic trading taken advantage of the bullish pressure that we have seen. Every time we dip, the buyers come rushing back, and quite frankly on Wall Street, it’s not uncommon to see the market open lower in the morning, and to find buyers later in the day. Until this pattern stops, I don’t see this market breaking down anytime soon. Buying continues to be the best way forward.

    

NASDAQ 100

By breaking above the 6400 level late during the trading session on Friday, the NASDAQ 100 looks very likely to continue the uptrend and go looking towards the 6450 level above. I think that pullbacks continue to find support at the 6380 handle, and that value hunters will be attracted to the NASDAQ 100 as it has shown so much in the way of resiliency. The stochastic oscillator is in the overbought area on the hourly chart, so a short-term pullback could present itself rather quickly. However, that pullback offers value, and if we can stay above the 6380 handle, there’s no reason to think about shorting this market. Longer-term, I anticipate that the 6500 level is going to be targeted, but that’s going to take a significant amount of time to get to. This will be especially true as we head into the holidays.

   

   

Dow Jones 30

The Dow Jones 30 initially went sideways during the trading session on Friday, popping just a bit, pulling back again, and then finding enough support at the 23,500 level to rally significantly. Because of this, it’s likely that the market will continue to find buyers underneath, and I think that the short-term pullbacks are going to continue to be picked up by algorithmic traders as well, as a “buy every dip” mentality has taken over Wall Street. The 23,500 level is very important, and if we break down below there I think we could drop another 250 points rather quickly. Overall, I think that we will eventually reach towards the 24,000 handle above, which of course has a certain amount of psychological importance as well. The Dow Jones 30 continues to plow along to the upside, and therefore I have no interest in shorting.

   

MARKET UPDATE:

Week Ahead: Auto sales, F&O expiry among 10 things D-Street will watch out for

The upcoming week could see some volatility owing to F&O expiry lined up on Thursday. Quarterly GDP data figures for India will also be declared on the same day.

Signalling an end to the correction cycle witnessed in the recent past, benchmark indices closed the week on a positive note, driven largely by support from Infosys, Reliance and heavyweights such as ITC and HDFC.

Midcaps too had a very good day of trade after the index hit a fresh record high. Stocks such a Sintex, PC Jewellers, Crompton Consumer, Swaraj Engines, among others, were in focus.

The Sensex closed higher by 91.16 points at 33,679.24, while the Nifty was up 40.90 points at 10,389.70. The market breadth was positive as 1,506 shares advanced against a decline of 1,227 shares, while 154 shares were unchanged.

Infosys, Bajaj Auto, GAIL and Aurobindo Pharma were the top gainers, while BHEL, SBI, Hindalco and Vedanta were the top losers.

On a weekly basis, the indices ended 1 percent higher. Nifty Bank and Midcap gained by 0.2 and 1.2 percent, respectively.

The upcoming week could see some volatility due to F&O expiry lined up on Thursday. Additionally, auto stocks could be in focus as companies declare their auto sales figures for November.

Auto Sales

With December arriving next week, the focus could shift to auto sales. The market will look forward to the numbers as this will not include the festive season sales, which had been one of the key drivers in the past two months.

Going forward, the Street will take cues from these figures in a bid to gauge the consumption trends in the country as well. Auto stocks could be in focus. The sectoral index has been trading flat so far in November, while on a yearly basis, this has seen 22 percent increase.

Corporate Action

Though major companies have declared their results for the September quarter, there are around 160-odd small and medium companies on the BSE that will be declaring their results over the next week. Investors in stocks such as Vishal Bearings, Kiri Industries, Orbit Exports, and 8K Miles, among others, can track developments on this front.

Additionally, companies such as Care Ratings, Sadbhav Engineering, Mayur Uniquoters and New India Assurance will have separate meetings to discuss interim dividend. Additionally, Future Retail could also be in focus as a Scheme of Arrangement is scheduled on November 29.

S&P rating

The Street could react to the unchanged rating by global ratings agency S&P as it was factoring in either a status quo or an upgrade. It will also watch out for  commentary on the Narendra Modi government’s efforts at the macro-economic level.

S&P on Friday retained India's outlook as stable and kept the rating unchanged at BBB-. While the agency retained the rating, it lauded the Modi government's fiscal consolidation drive and said that the reforms undertaken are favorable for the economy.

Crude oil

Oil prices last week surged on the back of some inventory and pipeline outage issues and jumped to a two-year high on Friday as North American markets tightened on the partial closure of the Keystone pipeline connecting Canadian oilfields with the United States.

US light crude hit highs not seen since July 1, 2015, settling up 1.6 percent at USD 58.95 per barrel.

Trading activity was expected to be low on Friday due to the US Thanksgiving holiday.

Experts believe that the Street is watching out for the OPEC meet next week, which is likely to extend production cuts.

Stocks in focus

Few developments post market hours on Friday and Saturday could keep certain stocks in focus. Companies such as Sun Pharma could react on Monday after it initiated a voluntary national recall of diabetes drug Riomet.

The company said that it was being done due to microbial contamination and use of contaminated Riomet could lead to risk of infection.

Additionally, ONGC could react to developments wherein the firm is said to have written to the Prime Minister against the plan to sell stake in oil fields to private firms. It has said that oil fields are legacy assets of the firm, and it is natural to see a production dip after 30 years.

Meanwhile, Quess Corp has signed definitive agreements to acquire 51 percent equity in Trimax Smart Infraprojects for Rs 2 crore. Dredging Corp could also react to the news of non-executive employees union giving notice of indefinite strike on or after December 6 against the Centre’s decision to privatise/sell stake of the company.

Macro data

On the domestic front, the Street will look forward to the quarterly GDP data figures for India, which will be declared on November 30.

Over and above this, the manufacturing purchasing managers’ index will be out during the next week, which will help in gauging the manufacturing activity in the country. Positive cues from these data points could help the Street push up to fresh bullish points.

US’ GDP data in the US, CPI data, crude oil imports, and manufacturing PMI could also keep the Street on its feet.

Technical outlook

The bulls maintained their hold on D-Street throughout the trading session on Friday unlike the three preceding session when it moved in a narrow range on either side. The index registered a positive close for the seventh straight session and made a strong bull candle on the charts.

Formation of a strong bull candle on daily charts after ‘Doji’ type pattern formed on the charts for the past four trading sessions is a bullish sign. The index now trades above key short-term moving averages and MACD is also on the verge to give a bullish crossover.

HDFC Securities said that after the formation of two bottoms (1st and 2nd X marks), Nifty consumed five weeks to show upmove and the sixth week has led to top reversal.

“Presently, after the formation of bottom reversal in last week, Nifty has moved up for this week. As per this pattern, there is a higher possibility of Nifty showing up moves for the next five weeks, before showing top reversal pattern again at the highs in the sixth week,” the brokerage said in its report.

FII data

Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) sold shares worth Rs 416.28 crore compared to domestic institutional investors who bought Rs 427.63 crore worth of shares in the Indian equity market on Friday, data available with the NSE showed.

So far, for the month of November, FIIs have remained net sellers of Rs 10,742.22 crore worth of shares, while DIIs have purchased Rs 7,628.32 crore worth of shares, hinting at the continued support offered by domestic investors.

The Street will watch out for these flows, going forward, especially amid volatility ahead of F&O expiry and US Federal Reserve’s meet lined up next month.

F&O expiry

All futures and options contracts for November will expire on Thursday and positions will be rolled over to December.

ICICI Securities believes that the Nifty has been forming a base near 10,300 for the November series. The upmove can be extended till 10,600.

“Call positions are getting added at the 10,600 strike, which remains the target for the index. Closure was seen in the Nifty and Nifty Bank futures, which shows the short covering pattern seen in these indices,” the brokerage said in its report.

Rupee

Retreating from a three-week high, the rupee on Friday depreciated by 12 paise to close at 64.70 a dollar due to renewed demand for the US currency. A sharp uptick in the US dollar demand from importers and banks amid rising prospect of Fed rate hike by the end of this year largely dominated trading sentiments.

The US currency remained under pressure owing to the Federal Reserve's inflation concerns.

The currency’s moves will also be in focus ahead of the GDP data that will be declared later in the week. A significant change could impact IT stocks in particular.

MORE WILL UPDATE SOON!!

Nifty 50,Bank Nifty,Market Update

Nifty 50

Nifty is looking extremely bullish on charts and all the indicators suggest that a rally is waiting ahead.On our previous blog we clearly indicated that Nifty has resistance around 10350--10380 and we saw Nifty struggle in that region throughout the week and hence closed in at 10390.We saw Nifty gain for five straight session and also saw a tussle between the bulls and the bears throughout the week with bulls emerging as winner.Now what to expect next week.Since India has been waiting for a sharp upside momentum news in the name of India rating upgrade by S&P which maintained a stable outlook for India as most position in the last trading session was made in this anticipation for a gap up Nifty open but now it may not be the case,One also has to understand that rating has important implication for the bond market but "who are we kidding" all market especially Indian stock markets are driven by sentiments and therefore we may expect a downside open on Monday as a temporary setback and every dip on the market should be used to build a long term position or as an buying opportunity.

Nifty is looking extremely stable in charts and making a case for all time high breakout which we may see before the expiry in the upcoming week ahead.RSI of 61 and increasing also indicate that Nifty 50 may soon enter an overbought zone with rise in volumes and one should not trust the bears if they start to show some panic in the start of the week as trend is clearly that of upside. MACD is also heading towards a positive crossover and this will make the trend positive for short term to come and expect sharp upside in December .

Immediate Supports Nifty 50 is in the range of 10350.Below this lower support lies around 10260 levels.Immediate Resistance lies around 10420.If these resistance are positively breached and sustained then one may see Nifty testing (10450--10500)+ mark in upcoming week ahead.

 

Bank Nifty

Bank Nifty looks highly stable in charts and this week we saw Bank nifty in consolidation mode and form a case of an upside breakout for making new all time high in charts and seems to be heading towards a positive breakouts to make new lifetime highs above 257900 level and now currently trading at 25779.If Bank Nifty is able to give consecutive closes above 25700 level or able to consolidate in the range of 25700--25625 then we may see more upside as every dip in Bank Nifty should be used as an buying opportunity with stocks like Yes Bank and Kotak Mahindra Bank ,ICICI Bank ,Canara Bank to mint money in short to medium term basis.

Although the fact that S&P rating for India remained stable we may see a negative sentiment at the start of the week and see some downside and bears will try to take full opportunity of this scenario to drag the index downward but one should not trust the bear as we may see sharp short covering if this case persist as all other technical indicators suggest a positive outlook for bank nifty in the upcoming week ahead.RSI of 64 and increasing also suggest that a bull run may be waiting ahead and we may see sharp upside if RSI enters into overbought territory. MACD with a positive divergence of 10.45 also indicate that an upward trend lies ahead in Bank Nifty for short term to medium term basis.Bank Nifty has immediate Support levels around 25625--25500.Below this lower support building around (25200--25150) level.Bank Nifty has immediate resistance around (25850--25900).If the mentioned level is positively breached and sustained and consecutive closes above these level takes place then we will see sharp upside rally in bank nifty as bank nifty will break its consolidation mode and enter new regions to make new life time high.

Market Update:

--Tech leads S&P above 2,600; Amazon, other retail stocks gain.----The Dow rose 31.81 points, or 0.14 percent, to 23,557.99, while the S&P gained 5.34 points, or 0.21 percent, to 2,602.42. The Nasdaq added 21.80 points, or 0.32 percent, to 6,889.16.--

--Technology stocks led the S&P 500 and Nasdaq to record closing highs on Friday, with the S&P ending above 2,600 points for the first time, while Amazon and retail stocks got a boost from signs of a strong start to the holiday shopping season.--

--The benchmark S&P 500 and the blue-chip Dow Jones industrials posted weekly gains for the first time in three weeks while the Nasdaq Composite posted its best weekly performance since the week to September 1.--

--The stock market had a half session on what is known as Black Friday, the day after the Thanksgiving holiday and the unofficial start of the US holiday shopping season.--

--US stores offered deep discounts, entertainment and gifts to draw bargain hunters, but some shoppers said they were just eyeing goods, reserving their cash for online purchases.--

--On Thursday, Thanksgiving Day, US shoppers spent more than USD 2.87 billion online, according to Adobe Analytics.--

--Adobe, which measures 80 percent of online transactions at the largest 100 US web retailers, forecast online Black Friday sales of USD 5 billion, which would be a record high. Online retailers could rake in an additional USD 6.6 billion on Cyber Monday.--

--The S&P retail index rose 0.75 percent and hit a record intraday high, led by Amazon’s 2.6 percent gain.--

--Brick-and-mortar stores, which have been boosting their online presence, also fared well.--

--Kohl’s Gap and J.C. Penney were up between 0.6 percent and 1.6 percent.--

--Target ended 2.8 percent lower at USD 55.88, with analysts noting that it closed its stores for several hours overnight while rivals stayed open. Wal-Mart inched up 0.2 percent.--

--The CBOE Volatility Index better known as the VIX and the most widely followed barometer of expected near-term stock market volatility, closed at 9.67, nearly a three-week low. Just after the stock market closed at 1 p.m. New York time (1800 GMT), the VIX fell to 8.56, ostensibly a record intra-day low.--

--The energy index and the materials index were boosted by rising commodities prices.--

--US oil prices jumped to a more than two-year high as North American markets tightened on the partial closure of a key pipeline linking Canada and the United States.--

--About 2.78 billion shares changed hands in US exchanges in the shortened session. The daily average over the last 20 full sessions is 6.48 billion shares. Last year, volume during the session after Thanksgiving was 3 billion shares.--

--Advancing issues outnumbered declining ones on the NYSE by a 1.61-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.31-to-1 ratio favored advancers.--

--The S&P posted 35 new 52-week highs and one new low; the Nasdaq recorded 120 new highs and 21 new lows.--

MORE WILL UPDATE SOON!!

Multi-bagger Stock Investment Pick

Its the best time of the week ,Yes its our multibagger stock selection time and today we our going to talk about a stock in which i invested 800 shares at the rate of 33 and now currently trading at Rs 49 in just 3 months time,yes the stock belongs to Finance-General sector and its name is ALANKIT LIMITED.

I am Holding for target of 70--80+

ALANKIT LIMITED

 

Alankit is looking superb in charts and if one is looking for a long term gain then surely this is a safe bet to jump on as both technically and fundamentally the stock is looking stable.Let talk about the technical aspect of the stock.

One careful analysis of the candlestick chart pattern i was already anticipating a bullish penant pattern as financial indicated me to do so.

RSI of 87 also suggest that stock is in overbought territory and we may see a bullish trend to remain in the stock till stock remain in overbought territory of 87--60.

MACD of positive divergence of 1.24 also suggest that trend is positive and will remain intact for sometime as stock has seen sharp rise in volumes which is expected to remain in the stock and this upward trend may persist for some more time before rally start to fade.

On careful analysis of stock movement in Ichomoku chart one can see that stock is comfortably above its 9 day conversion base line of 42 and this shows that stock is comfortably bullish and will remain to do so if 42 is not breached negatively.

Let us talk about the fundamentals of the stock:

Alankit Limited has shown stable results since previous quarters and on careful analysis on can see that stock is improving its earning drastically as it has already in its June 2017 and September 2017 quarters posted result of 11.30 crores  combined which is close to its previous yearly profit of Rs 13.26 crore with two quarter remaining and this clearly shows that stock will comfortably move to upper regions as it start posting its next quarterly result which is expected to be positive for the stock considering the previous years hiccups of demonetization at the previous year quarter as the same time period.

Key Fundamentals:

Market Cap:701.92 crore

EPS:0.93

Book Value:3.21

Dividend Yield:0.41

Face Value:1

Dividend Yield (%):20%

Div(%):10.00%

CONCLSION: My advice to all the viewers of the blog is to wait and watch sometime the stock movement and then  enter at a dip to make a fruitful long term position and keep adding at every dip to make a good holding in stock.Remember stock is low beta stock so one will be clearly safe from adverse price movement in times of consolidation.

Key Levels:

Immediate Support:42

Important support 38

Buy Zone 48--42

Long Term Target :70--80+

MORE WILL UPDATE SOON!!

"HAPPY THANKSGIVING"

Best of all is it to preserve everything in a pure,Still heart,And let there be for every pulse a thanksgiving,And for every breath a song!"Happy Thanksgiving

  

Market Update/S&P 500 Analysis/DOW 30 Analysis /Nasdaq 100 Analysis

S&P 500

The S&P 500 shot higher during the day on Tuesday, as traders in America trying to start the so-called “Santa Claus rally” that tends to happen every year. Ultimately, the 2600 level above is the major barrier that we are trying to break above, and it does look like we may be able to. However, we are bit overextended and it’s possible we may pull back. It is because of this that I am awaiting a daily close above the 2600 level to serve buying, and I also recognize that with Thanksgiving being on Thursday, it’s likely that the markets shrivel up after 24 hours. Ultimately, I think that the market will continue to be very noisy, with a proclivity to buy the dips going forward as algorithmic traders have done so for so long. If we do break above the 2600 level, the most logical place to look for resistance would be the 2650 handle, and I think that we will eventually find pullbacks to give us an opportunity to pick up value.

On the breakout, the 2600 level should offer a floor in the market, as what was once resistance should become support. That’s essentially how I’m looking at this market, and although we could pull back from here and go drifting lower, I have no interest in shorting this market as it is obvious that longer-term pressure is still to the upside. The general attitude of the market is every time we fall there is value, and towards the end of the year is very likely that we will have plenty of fund managers out there that need to prove themselves fully invested as the returns have been rather phenomenal the last several months. In general, I think upward is where we go.

S&P 500 has broken the floor of the rising trend, which indicates a weaker initial rising rate. The index has broken up through the resistance at points 2594. This predicts a further rise. In case of negative reactions, there will now be support at points 2594. RSI diverges negatively against the price, which indicates a danger for a reaction down. The index is overall assessed as technically positive for the short term.S&P 500 shows a strong development within a rising trend channel. A further positive development is indicated, and there is support against the floor of the trend channel. The index has support at points 2400. RSI diverges negatively against the price, which indicates a danger for a reaction down. The index is overall assessed as technically positive for the medium long term.S&P 500 is within a rising trend. Continued positive development within the trend channel is indicated. Has risen strongly since the positive signal from a rectangle formation at the break through the resistance at 2084. The objective at 2362 is now met, but the formation still gives a signal in the same direction. The index has support at points 2390. The index is overall assessed as technically positive for the long term.

  

Dow Jones 30

The Dow Jones 30 exploded to the upside during the trading session on Tuesday, slicing through the 20,500 level. The market then broke above the 23,600 level, and I think that we are getting a bit overextended as we try to break out to the upside. Pullbacks to the 23,500 level are possible, but I think that should be plenty of buyers in that area and therefore it’s likely that we continue to see the Dow Jones 30 rally over the longer term. US stocks have been very strong for some time, and I think that it’s unlikely to change anytime soon, although we could get a bit of a pullback from time to time I have no interest in shorting, and given enough time I think that we will reach towards the 24,000 handle.

  

NASDAQ 100

The NASDAQ 100 has broken to the upside, reaching a fresh, new high. Ultimately, the market looks as if it is a bit overextended as I record this, but quite frankly I think that the pullback will be bought. I’m looking at the 6340 level for buying opportunities, and I believe that we will eventually go to the 6400 level. If we were to break down below the 6300 level, it would be very negative, but in the meantime, I think that the buyers are more likely than not to take over the market and push towards higher levels. Longer-term, I anticipate a significant move and attempt to reach the 6500 level above. Volatility will continue, but in general I believe that the buyers will have the upper hand, as the NASDAQ 100 tends to lead the rest the American stock markets higher. As we head towards the end of the year, the “Santa Claus rally” seems to be winding up. I believe that short-term pullbacks will continue to offer value the traders are more than willing to take advantage of, and that the 6250 level should be now the “floor” of the uptrend, but quite frankly I would not be surprised at all to see the 6300-level offer just as much support. I think that we are eventually going to break out to the upside in drag the rest of the US indices with us, as the NASDAQ 100 tends to lead the way overall. I have no interest in shorting this market, so waiting for pullbacks to show signs of support or an extension of the uptrend to put money back to work. Longer-term, I anticipate seeing the market go towards 6500.

  

Market Update

Strong Stock Futures Point Wall Street to New Records, Oil Prices on the Rise.

In what is expected to be a thinly traded pre-Thanksgiving session, stock futures pointed to a slightly higher open for Wall Street on Wednesday, Nov. 22, as stocks aimed to continue record-setting gains from a day earlier.

Dow Jones Industrial Average futures gained 40 points, or 0.17%, S&P 500 futures increased about 3 points, or 0.1%, and Nasdaq futures rose about 9 points, or 0.14%. All three major indexes notched record intraday and closing prices on Tuesday, Nov. 21, as strength in healthcare and tech bolstered investor optimism. Stocks have traded higher in three of the last four sessions.

Global oil prices flirted with two-year highs on Wednesday as an expected dip in domestic production combined with ongoing disruptions to imports from Canada lifted markets ahead of next week's OPEC summit in Vienna.

West Texas Intermediate crude futures for December delivery popped higher by 1.79% to $57.85 a barrel in trading early Wednesday, leaving prices just shy of their two-year high of a little more than $58. International benchmark Brent crude futures traded at $63.23, up 1.05%.

Durable goods orders in October declined 1.2% vs. an expected 0.3% increase. Ex-transportation, durable goods orders in the U.S. increased 0.4%, just shy of analysts' expectation of a 0.5% increase. In the previous month, durable goods orders increased 2%. 

Weekly jobless claims declined 13,000 to 239,000. Wall Street had expected 240,000 claims. The decline in jobless claims came after two consecutive weeks of increases, suggesting steady job growth.

The economic calendar in the U.S. on Wednesday also includes Oil Inventories for the week ended Nov. 17 at 10:30 a.m., and minutes from the Nov. 1 meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee at 2 p.m. The Fed's minutes are widely expected to show that the bank is poised to raise interest rates at its Dec. 12-Dec. 13 meeting.

Family dinner Thursday evening might bring some drama, but don't look for the same in equities markets ahead of Thanksgiving. Traders will manage a somewhat boring day Wednesday ahead of the holiday. Markets will be closed Thursday, Nov. 23, and will open for a half-day of trading until 1 p.m. EST on Friday, Nov. 24. 

Deere & Co. shares jumped 4.6% in premarket Wednesday, indicating shares will open at a record high as the company reported profit and sales that topped expectations for its fiscal fourth quarter. Deere reported earnings of $1.57 a share, 10 cents higher than FactSet analysts expected. Revenue increased 23% to $8.02 billion, topping Wall Street's forecast of $7.92 billion. The company said it expects its fiscal first-quarter equipment sales will surge 38% from a year ago as South American demand grows.

Market moving fundamental events

Asian stock markets mostly moved higher after new highs on Wall Street ahead of the U.S. Thanksgiving holidays. What other market drivers do traders need to pay attention to?

22 November,– Optimism over global growth continues to propel indices higher although the CSI 300 retreated slightly after yesterday’s gains, as yields spiked in China while coming down in Japan, Australia, New Zealand.

UK 100 and U.S. stock futures are also higher, as are oil prices, with the front end WTI future trading at USD 57.68 per barrel.

European Market Outlook:

The European data calendar is pretty empty, with only preliminary Eurozone consumer confidence in the afternoon. Events include a German 10-year Bund auction and the U.K. budget, while in Germany Merkel’s search for a way out of the stalemate continues.

US Market Outlook:

U.S. equities are back at record highs after their opening lunge higher, propped up by a solid run higher in China on hopes regulators there will managed their shadow banking problems (Hang Seng rallied 1.9%) and hopes that Germany’s Merkel will extricate herself to form a coalition government without calling for new elections (German GER30+0.8%). That spilled over to a pre-Thanksgiving binge on Wall Street, paced by a 1% rally on NASDAQ and followed by 0.6-0.7% gains on the blue-chip indices.

Speaking of tech, Apple +2%, 3M +1.5% and Microsoft +1.3% are the Dow’s leaders on the upside, while Wal-Mart -0.7% is the deepest decliner. The VIX equity volatility index is 6.7% lower and back under 10.0, well off the 14.51 November high set amid tax cut plan divergence between the House and Senate.

That fear now appears to be on the back-burner, though some heavy lifting remains to reconcile the two tax bill versions and sell the unified plan to the public before year-end. Meanwhile, the USD index remains around 94.0, while gold rebounded back over $1,283 and WTI crude has consolidated 1.5% higher near $57.92 bbl.

Main Macro 22 November Market moving fundamental events:

·         UK Autumn Forecast Statement – Released yearly.

·         US Durable Goods –  Expectations – rise 0.3% vs 2.0% in September due to the hurricane rebound, or 0.4% ex-transportation.

·         US Jobless Claims  & UoM Sentiment- Expectations – revised their decline by 15k to 234k for the week ended November 18, while final Michigan sentiment may be nudged to 98.0 in November from a preliminary 97.8, down from 100.7 in October.

·         Oil Inventories – Expectations – decrease by 1.4 mln barrels.

·         FOMC Meeting Minutes

MORE WILL UPDATE SOON!!