Nifty 50,Bank Nifty,Market Update

Nifty 50

Nifty is looking extremely bullish on charts and all the indicators suggest that a rally is waiting ahead.On our previous blog we clearly indicated that Nifty has resistance around 10350--10380 and we saw Nifty struggle in that region throughout the week and hence closed in at 10390.We saw Nifty gain for five straight session and also saw a tussle between the bulls and the bears throughout the week with bulls emerging as winner.Now what to expect next week.Since India has been waiting for a sharp upside momentum news in the name of India rating upgrade by S&P which maintained a stable outlook for India as most position in the last trading session was made in this anticipation for a gap up Nifty open but now it may not be the case,One also has to understand that rating has important implication for the bond market but "who are we kidding" all market especially Indian stock markets are driven by sentiments and therefore we may expect a downside open on Monday as a temporary setback and every dip on the market should be used to build a long term position or as an buying opportunity.

Nifty is looking extremely stable in charts and making a case for all time high breakout which we may see before the expiry in the upcoming week ahead.RSI of 61 and increasing also indicate that Nifty 50 may soon enter an overbought zone with rise in volumes and one should not trust the bears if they start to show some panic in the start of the week as trend is clearly that of upside. MACD is also heading towards a positive crossover and this will make the trend positive for short term to come and expect sharp upside in December .

Immediate Supports Nifty 50 is in the range of 10350.Below this lower support lies around 10260 levels.Immediate Resistance lies around 10420.If these resistance are positively breached and sustained then one may see Nifty testing (10450--10500)+ mark in upcoming week ahead.

 

Bank Nifty

Bank Nifty looks highly stable in charts and this week we saw Bank nifty in consolidation mode and form a case of an upside breakout for making new all time high in charts and seems to be heading towards a positive breakouts to make new lifetime highs above 257900 level and now currently trading at 25779.If Bank Nifty is able to give consecutive closes above 25700 level or able to consolidate in the range of 25700--25625 then we may see more upside as every dip in Bank Nifty should be used as an buying opportunity with stocks like Yes Bank and Kotak Mahindra Bank ,ICICI Bank ,Canara Bank to mint money in short to medium term basis.

Although the fact that S&P rating for India remained stable we may see a negative sentiment at the start of the week and see some downside and bears will try to take full opportunity of this scenario to drag the index downward but one should not trust the bear as we may see sharp short covering if this case persist as all other technical indicators suggest a positive outlook for bank nifty in the upcoming week ahead.RSI of 64 and increasing also suggest that a bull run may be waiting ahead and we may see sharp upside if RSI enters into overbought territory. MACD with a positive divergence of 10.45 also indicate that an upward trend lies ahead in Bank Nifty for short term to medium term basis.Bank Nifty has immediate Support levels around 25625--25500.Below this lower support building around (25200--25150) level.Bank Nifty has immediate resistance around (25850--25900).If the mentioned level is positively breached and sustained and consecutive closes above these level takes place then we will see sharp upside rally in bank nifty as bank nifty will break its consolidation mode and enter new regions to make new life time high.

Market Update:

--Tech leads S&P above 2,600; Amazon, other retail stocks gain.----The Dow rose 31.81 points, or 0.14 percent, to 23,557.99, while the S&P gained 5.34 points, or 0.21 percent, to 2,602.42. The Nasdaq added 21.80 points, or 0.32 percent, to 6,889.16.--

--Technology stocks led the S&P 500 and Nasdaq to record closing highs on Friday, with the S&P ending above 2,600 points for the first time, while Amazon and retail stocks got a boost from signs of a strong start to the holiday shopping season.--

--The benchmark S&P 500 and the blue-chip Dow Jones industrials posted weekly gains for the first time in three weeks while the Nasdaq Composite posted its best weekly performance since the week to September 1.--

--The stock market had a half session on what is known as Black Friday, the day after the Thanksgiving holiday and the unofficial start of the US holiday shopping season.--

--US stores offered deep discounts, entertainment and gifts to draw bargain hunters, but some shoppers said they were just eyeing goods, reserving their cash for online purchases.--

--On Thursday, Thanksgiving Day, US shoppers spent more than USD 2.87 billion online, according to Adobe Analytics.--

--Adobe, which measures 80 percent of online transactions at the largest 100 US web retailers, forecast online Black Friday sales of USD 5 billion, which would be a record high. Online retailers could rake in an additional USD 6.6 billion on Cyber Monday.--

--The S&P retail index rose 0.75 percent and hit a record intraday high, led by Amazon’s 2.6 percent gain.--

--Brick-and-mortar stores, which have been boosting their online presence, also fared well.--

--Kohl’s Gap and J.C. Penney were up between 0.6 percent and 1.6 percent.--

--Target ended 2.8 percent lower at USD 55.88, with analysts noting that it closed its stores for several hours overnight while rivals stayed open. Wal-Mart inched up 0.2 percent.--

--The CBOE Volatility Index better known as the VIX and the most widely followed barometer of expected near-term stock market volatility, closed at 9.67, nearly a three-week low. Just after the stock market closed at 1 p.m. New York time (1800 GMT), the VIX fell to 8.56, ostensibly a record intra-day low.--

--The energy index and the materials index were boosted by rising commodities prices.--

--US oil prices jumped to a more than two-year high as North American markets tightened on the partial closure of a key pipeline linking Canada and the United States.--

--About 2.78 billion shares changed hands in US exchanges in the shortened session. The daily average over the last 20 full sessions is 6.48 billion shares. Last year, volume during the session after Thanksgiving was 3 billion shares.--

--Advancing issues outnumbered declining ones on the NYSE by a 1.61-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.31-to-1 ratio favored advancers.--

--The S&P posted 35 new 52-week highs and one new low; the Nasdaq recorded 120 new highs and 21 new lows.--

MORE WILL UPDATE SOON!!

Multi-bagger Stock Investment Pick

Its the best time of the week ,Yes its our multibagger stock selection time and today we our going to talk about a stock in which i invested 800 shares at the rate of 33 and now currently trading at Rs 49 in just 3 months time,yes the stock belongs to Finance-General sector and its name is ALANKIT LIMITED.

I am Holding for target of 70--80+

ALANKIT LIMITED

 

Alankit is looking superb in charts and if one is looking for a long term gain then surely this is a safe bet to jump on as both technically and fundamentally the stock is looking stable.Let talk about the technical aspect of the stock.

One careful analysis of the candlestick chart pattern i was already anticipating a bullish penant pattern as financial indicated me to do so.

RSI of 87 also suggest that stock is in overbought territory and we may see a bullish trend to remain in the stock till stock remain in overbought territory of 87--60.

MACD of positive divergence of 1.24 also suggest that trend is positive and will remain intact for sometime as stock has seen sharp rise in volumes which is expected to remain in the stock and this upward trend may persist for some more time before rally start to fade.

On careful analysis of stock movement in Ichomoku chart one can see that stock is comfortably above its 9 day conversion base line of 42 and this shows that stock is comfortably bullish and will remain to do so if 42 is not breached negatively.

Let us talk about the fundamentals of the stock:

Alankit Limited has shown stable results since previous quarters and on careful analysis on can see that stock is improving its earning drastically as it has already in its June 2017 and September 2017 quarters posted result of 11.30 crores  combined which is close to its previous yearly profit of Rs 13.26 crore with two quarter remaining and this clearly shows that stock will comfortably move to upper regions as it start posting its next quarterly result which is expected to be positive for the stock considering the previous years hiccups of demonetization at the previous year quarter as the same time period.

Key Fundamentals:

Market Cap:701.92 crore

EPS:0.93

Book Value:3.21

Dividend Yield:0.41

Face Value:1

Dividend Yield (%):20%

Div(%):10.00%

CONCLSION: My advice to all the viewers of the blog is to wait and watch sometime the stock movement and then  enter at a dip to make a fruitful long term position and keep adding at every dip to make a good holding in stock.Remember stock is low beta stock so one will be clearly safe from adverse price movement in times of consolidation.

Key Levels:

Immediate Support:42

Important support 38

Buy Zone 48--42

Long Term Target :70--80+

MORE WILL UPDATE SOON!!

"HAPPY THANKSGIVING"

Best of all is it to preserve everything in a pure,Still heart,And let there be for every pulse a thanksgiving,And for every breath a song!"Happy Thanksgiving

  

Market Update/S&P 500 Analysis/DOW 30 Analysis /Nasdaq 100 Analysis

S&P 500

The S&P 500 shot higher during the day on Tuesday, as traders in America trying to start the so-called “Santa Claus rally” that tends to happen every year. Ultimately, the 2600 level above is the major barrier that we are trying to break above, and it does look like we may be able to. However, we are bit overextended and it’s possible we may pull back. It is because of this that I am awaiting a daily close above the 2600 level to serve buying, and I also recognize that with Thanksgiving being on Thursday, it’s likely that the markets shrivel up after 24 hours. Ultimately, I think that the market will continue to be very noisy, with a proclivity to buy the dips going forward as algorithmic traders have done so for so long. If we do break above the 2600 level, the most logical place to look for resistance would be the 2650 handle, and I think that we will eventually find pullbacks to give us an opportunity to pick up value.

On the breakout, the 2600 level should offer a floor in the market, as what was once resistance should become support. That’s essentially how I’m looking at this market, and although we could pull back from here and go drifting lower, I have no interest in shorting this market as it is obvious that longer-term pressure is still to the upside. The general attitude of the market is every time we fall there is value, and towards the end of the year is very likely that we will have plenty of fund managers out there that need to prove themselves fully invested as the returns have been rather phenomenal the last several months. In general, I think upward is where we go.

S&P 500 has broken the floor of the rising trend, which indicates a weaker initial rising rate. The index has broken up through the resistance at points 2594. This predicts a further rise. In case of negative reactions, there will now be support at points 2594. RSI diverges negatively against the price, which indicates a danger for a reaction down. The index is overall assessed as technically positive for the short term.S&P 500 shows a strong development within a rising trend channel. A further positive development is indicated, and there is support against the floor of the trend channel. The index has support at points 2400. RSI diverges negatively against the price, which indicates a danger for a reaction down. The index is overall assessed as technically positive for the medium long term.S&P 500 is within a rising trend. Continued positive development within the trend channel is indicated. Has risen strongly since the positive signal from a rectangle formation at the break through the resistance at 2084. The objective at 2362 is now met, but the formation still gives a signal in the same direction. The index has support at points 2390. The index is overall assessed as technically positive for the long term.

  

Dow Jones 30

The Dow Jones 30 exploded to the upside during the trading session on Tuesday, slicing through the 20,500 level. The market then broke above the 23,600 level, and I think that we are getting a bit overextended as we try to break out to the upside. Pullbacks to the 23,500 level are possible, but I think that should be plenty of buyers in that area and therefore it’s likely that we continue to see the Dow Jones 30 rally over the longer term. US stocks have been very strong for some time, and I think that it’s unlikely to change anytime soon, although we could get a bit of a pullback from time to time I have no interest in shorting, and given enough time I think that we will reach towards the 24,000 handle.

  

NASDAQ 100

The NASDAQ 100 has broken to the upside, reaching a fresh, new high. Ultimately, the market looks as if it is a bit overextended as I record this, but quite frankly I think that the pullback will be bought. I’m looking at the 6340 level for buying opportunities, and I believe that we will eventually go to the 6400 level. If we were to break down below the 6300 level, it would be very negative, but in the meantime, I think that the buyers are more likely than not to take over the market and push towards higher levels. Longer-term, I anticipate a significant move and attempt to reach the 6500 level above. Volatility will continue, but in general I believe that the buyers will have the upper hand, as the NASDAQ 100 tends to lead the rest the American stock markets higher. As we head towards the end of the year, the “Santa Claus rally” seems to be winding up. I believe that short-term pullbacks will continue to offer value the traders are more than willing to take advantage of, and that the 6250 level should be now the “floor” of the uptrend, but quite frankly I would not be surprised at all to see the 6300-level offer just as much support. I think that we are eventually going to break out to the upside in drag the rest of the US indices with us, as the NASDAQ 100 tends to lead the way overall. I have no interest in shorting this market, so waiting for pullbacks to show signs of support or an extension of the uptrend to put money back to work. Longer-term, I anticipate seeing the market go towards 6500.

  

Market Update

Strong Stock Futures Point Wall Street to New Records, Oil Prices on the Rise.

In what is expected to be a thinly traded pre-Thanksgiving session, stock futures pointed to a slightly higher open for Wall Street on Wednesday, Nov. 22, as stocks aimed to continue record-setting gains from a day earlier.

Dow Jones Industrial Average futures gained 40 points, or 0.17%, S&P 500 futures increased about 3 points, or 0.1%, and Nasdaq futures rose about 9 points, or 0.14%. All three major indexes notched record intraday and closing prices on Tuesday, Nov. 21, as strength in healthcare and tech bolstered investor optimism. Stocks have traded higher in three of the last four sessions.

Global oil prices flirted with two-year highs on Wednesday as an expected dip in domestic production combined with ongoing disruptions to imports from Canada lifted markets ahead of next week's OPEC summit in Vienna.

West Texas Intermediate crude futures for December delivery popped higher by 1.79% to $57.85 a barrel in trading early Wednesday, leaving prices just shy of their two-year high of a little more than $58. International benchmark Brent crude futures traded at $63.23, up 1.05%.

Durable goods orders in October declined 1.2% vs. an expected 0.3% increase. Ex-transportation, durable goods orders in the U.S. increased 0.4%, just shy of analysts' expectation of a 0.5% increase. In the previous month, durable goods orders increased 2%. 

Weekly jobless claims declined 13,000 to 239,000. Wall Street had expected 240,000 claims. The decline in jobless claims came after two consecutive weeks of increases, suggesting steady job growth.

The economic calendar in the U.S. on Wednesday also includes Oil Inventories for the week ended Nov. 17 at 10:30 a.m., and minutes from the Nov. 1 meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee at 2 p.m. The Fed's minutes are widely expected to show that the bank is poised to raise interest rates at its Dec. 12-Dec. 13 meeting.

Family dinner Thursday evening might bring some drama, but don't look for the same in equities markets ahead of Thanksgiving. Traders will manage a somewhat boring day Wednesday ahead of the holiday. Markets will be closed Thursday, Nov. 23, and will open for a half-day of trading until 1 p.m. EST on Friday, Nov. 24. 

Deere & Co. shares jumped 4.6% in premarket Wednesday, indicating shares will open at a record high as the company reported profit and sales that topped expectations for its fiscal fourth quarter. Deere reported earnings of $1.57 a share, 10 cents higher than FactSet analysts expected. Revenue increased 23% to $8.02 billion, topping Wall Street's forecast of $7.92 billion. The company said it expects its fiscal first-quarter equipment sales will surge 38% from a year ago as South American demand grows.

Market moving fundamental events

Asian stock markets mostly moved higher after new highs on Wall Street ahead of the U.S. Thanksgiving holidays. What other market drivers do traders need to pay attention to?

22 November,– Optimism over global growth continues to propel indices higher although the CSI 300 retreated slightly after yesterday’s gains, as yields spiked in China while coming down in Japan, Australia, New Zealand.

UK 100 and U.S. stock futures are also higher, as are oil prices, with the front end WTI future trading at USD 57.68 per barrel.

European Market Outlook:

The European data calendar is pretty empty, with only preliminary Eurozone consumer confidence in the afternoon. Events include a German 10-year Bund auction and the U.K. budget, while in Germany Merkel’s search for a way out of the stalemate continues.

US Market Outlook:

U.S. equities are back at record highs after their opening lunge higher, propped up by a solid run higher in China on hopes regulators there will managed their shadow banking problems (Hang Seng rallied 1.9%) and hopes that Germany’s Merkel will extricate herself to form a coalition government without calling for new elections (German GER30+0.8%). That spilled over to a pre-Thanksgiving binge on Wall Street, paced by a 1% rally on NASDAQ and followed by 0.6-0.7% gains on the blue-chip indices.

Speaking of tech, Apple +2%, 3M +1.5% and Microsoft +1.3% are the Dow’s leaders on the upside, while Wal-Mart -0.7% is the deepest decliner. The VIX equity volatility index is 6.7% lower and back under 10.0, well off the 14.51 November high set amid tax cut plan divergence between the House and Senate.

That fear now appears to be on the back-burner, though some heavy lifting remains to reconcile the two tax bill versions and sell the unified plan to the public before year-end. Meanwhile, the USD index remains around 94.0, while gold rebounded back over $1,283 and WTI crude has consolidated 1.5% higher near $57.92 bbl.

Main Macro 22 November Market moving fundamental events:

·         UK Autumn Forecast Statement – Released yearly.

·         US Durable Goods –  Expectations – rise 0.3% vs 2.0% in September due to the hurricane rebound, or 0.4% ex-transportation.

·         US Jobless Claims  & UoM Sentiment- Expectations – revised their decline by 15k to 234k for the week ended November 18, while final Michigan sentiment may be nudged to 98.0 in November from a preliminary 97.8, down from 100.7 in October.

·         Oil Inventories – Expectations – decrease by 1.4 mln barrels.

·         FOMC Meeting Minutes

MORE WILL UPDATE SOON!!

Nifty & Bank Nifty Update & Market Update

Nifty 50

Nifty is looking extremely bullish on charts and all the indicators suggest that a rally is waiting ahead.With positive momentum provided by the Moody's upgrade of rating for India after a gap of 13 years a positive sentiments among foreign investors and domestics investors has taken place and this rating will enable easy lending of loan by IMF and other monetary agency for granting loans to Indian institutions which will speed up the much nedded impending infrastructure and banking sector boost.With more stimulus provided by the Indian government in the form of reforms like GST  a confidence is building surely for investment in Indian markets.Nifty is looking good on charts and every dip should be used as an buying opportunity for short term to medium term basis if one is looking for appreciation of wealth.Most of the analyst polls suggest that Nifty is likely to breach its all time high again and may test 10500--10800 by the end of this year.One should maintain caution for events like Gujarat election which may have some temporary effect in short term nonetheless all other macro indicators looks stable for the economy.RSI of approximately 54 and increasing also suggest that Nifty may soon enter overbought territory which will provide a strong upside momentum.Nifty is also above its 9-day conversion base line of 10289 mark in ichomoku charts indicating bullish trend ahead.

Immediate Supports Nifty 50 is in the range of 10240.Below this lower support lies around (10160--10140) levels.,Immediate Resistance lies around (10350--10380).If these resistance are positively breached and sustained then one may see Nifty testing 10500+ mark in upcoming weeks ahead.

  

Bank  Nifty

Bank Nifty looks highly bullish in charts and seems to be heading towards a positive breakouts to make new lifetime highs above 25700 level and now currently trading at 25728.If Bank Nifty is able to give consecutive closes above 25500 level or able to consolidate in the range of 25700--25500 then we may see more upside as every dip in Bank Nifty should be used as an buying opportunity with stocks like Yes Bank and Kotak Mahindra Bank providing great opportunity to mint money in medium to short term basis.Moreover Moody's rating upgrade of India will improve Indian Financial institution and other Companies  borrow ability  from international money lending institutions and this may improve the credit cycle growth in India.RSI of 64 and increasing also suggest that a bull run may be waiting ahead and we may see sharp upside if RSI enters into overbought territory. MACD with a positive divergence of 7.55 also indicate that an upward trend may persist in Bank Nifty for short term to medium term basis.Bank Nifty has immediate Support levels around 25500.Below this lower support building around (25200--25150) level.

  

MORE WILL UPDATE SOON!!

Nifty & Market Update/Performance/S&P 500,NASDAQ 100/DOW 30 Analysis

S&P 500

During quiet Friday trading, the S&P 500 hung about the 2580 handle, an area that has been important more than once. It’s obvious that if we can make a fresh, new high, the S&P 500 will probably go looking towards the 2600 level above, which should be rather resistive. The fact that we couldn’t go anywhere is not a huge surprise, I believe that most of the market participants are paying attention to the Congress in America, and whether they can pass some type of tax bill. If we do get that, the market should continue to go higher, and eventually break out. In the meantime, we could pull back, perhaps reaching towards the 2550 handle underneath, which is longer-term support as well. Buying the dips continues to be the way forward, as the S&P 500 has been so strong, and of course there is a certain amount of algorithmic trading coming along, and every time that we pull back its likely to attract more machines.

The S&P 500 fell during the week but found enough support at the 2550 level to turn around and form a hammer. The hammer, of course, is a bullish sign, and we continue to form them just above the 2500 level. While this market is overextended by just about every metric I use, not to mention the fact that the stochastic oscillator has crossed over in the overbought condition, it’s become obvious that the 2550 level is a major support level. When markets reach this type of over extension, one of 2 things will typically happen: we would either pull back significantly to find enough value to go long again, or we will go sideways for a while. Recently, it’s become a bit obvious that a pullback is going to be difficult to get. I think the market may continue to go sideways in If we do break down below the 2550 handle, I suspect that the 2500 level underneath is even more supportive. Because of that, it’s likely that we will see buyers in that area on a breakdown, and the longer-term trader would be well served to step out of the way and let the support work its magic. Alternately, if we break above the 2600 level, it’s time to start buying again as well. This market has been overdone, but longer-term traders will not be interested in selling, as the risk to reward ratio simply won’t be there. Earnings season has been good, so that might continue to lift this market, and if the US dollar continues to fall, that might help as well. I also get the feeling that most traders are simply waiting for the US Congress to finally pass a tax bill, which should send stocks much higher.general.

Markets overall continue to be volatile, but that’s to be expected as we await political outcomes. In general, I prefer to buy dips, because we are at elevated levels, and that means it’s only a matter of time before we get some type of pullback. Best the nature markets, offering value eventually. I look at that as an opportunity to go long, and I believe that any time this market becomes “cheap”, you need to be there. However, being patient and waiting for pullbacks is one of the more difficult things to do, but I think that we will eventually get that opportunity. Even though the 2580 handle seems to be holding out, I suspect that waiting for lower pricing is going to pay off in the end.

  

NASDAQ 100

The NASDAQ 100 fell significantly during the week, reaching down to the 6200 level. Well bounce from there to form a bit of a hammer, and a break above the top of the hammer should send this market much higher. The NASDAQ 100 has gotten a bit overextended, and that the market should continue to go towards the 6500 level if we can build up the necessary momentum. The NASDAQ 100 typically will lead the way for other US stock indices, so I expect to see that happen eventually. However, I believe that the floor in the uptrend is the 6000 handle, with every 100 points below offering potential support for buying as well. The NASDAQ 100 will benefit greatly from a tax bill, so if the US Congress gets it together, that could be the next catalyst to send the NASDAQ 100 much higher levels. If we were to break down below the 6000 handle, I would step out of the way.The NASDAQ 100 drifted a bit lower but has been more resilient than the Dow Jones 30. Because of this, I think we need to see a little bit more bearish pressure, perhaps reaching towards the 6300-level underneath, which is an area that’s been important for both buyers and sellers recently. I believe that the market probably needs to drop down further though, and relatively soon. Quite frankly, even though we formed a hammer on the weekly chart I am a bit leery about buying at these extended levels. The market should react positively to a tax bill, and I think we are essentially waiting for that over here as well. The NASDAQ 100 is especially sensitive to this as repatriation of funds overseas for US tech companies will be paramount as to where we go next. I expect that today could be a bit soft, but I certainly wouldn’t be a seller of a market that is this strong.

The December E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index failed to follow-through to the upside on Friday following Thursday’s strong surge to a new contract high. This price action suggests that perhaps the previous day’s attempt to breakout to the upside was fueled by short-covering and buy stops rather than new buying. Given the weak close, some traders who bought strength the previous day, may be trapped near the high. This could lead to intense selling if they are forced to liquidate their bad positions.The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. A trade through 6358.50 will signal a resumption of the uptrend. A move through 6230.75 will change the main trend to down.Friday’s inside move suggests investor indecision and impending volatility. The indecision is probably being caused by worries over whether the U.S. tax reform bill will be signed into law before the end of the year. Investors are also concerned about the whether the Mueller probe into election improprieties will affect the Trump Administration’s ability to accomplish the President’s agenda.The short-term range is 6011.00 to 6358.50. If the trend changes to down then its retracement zone at 6184.75 to 6143.75 will become the initial downside target.The main range is 5842.00 to 6358.50. If the selling pressure continues to build then its retracement zone at 6100.25 to 6039.25 will become the primary downside target.

 

Dow Jones 30

The Dow Jones 30 fell a bit during the week, as we continue to stagnate underneath the 23,500 level. I think a pullback from here could make some sense, with the 23,000-level underneath being a bit of a “floor.” That floor giving way could send this market even lower, perhaps down to the 22,500 level after that. The market is a bit overbought as the stochastic oscillator has been crossing, but quite frankly I think that it’s a market that should remain bullish longer term. I think we are waiting for the US Congress to pass some type of tax bill, and as soon as it does, we could continue to go higher. I believe that the “floor” in the overall uptrend is closer to the 22,000 handle.The Dow Jones 30 had a rough session on Friday, dropping down towards the 23,350 level. The market looks likely to see some support in this area, and on the stochastic oscillator, we have dropped enough to reach towards the oversold condition, and perhaps getting ready to cross over. That being the case, I think that buying is probably the best way to go in this general vicinity, but perhaps we may even drop further. The lower we go, the more likely it is going to offer us value that we can take advantage of. I believe that we are in a bit of a “holding pattern”, as we await the U.S. Congress to do its job. Tax bills are difficult but necessary to extend the profitability of US companies.

 

Stock Market update

Stocks are on course to begin the abbreviated holiday week on a slightly lower note as the S&P 500 futures currently trade three points, or 0.1%, below fair value. The major U.S. stock indices are coming off a mixed week, during which the S&P 500 and the Dow lost 0.1% and 0.3%, respectively, while the Nasdaq climbed 0.5%.

Elsewhere, equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region finished Monday on a mixed note, with Japan's Nikkei (-0.6%) showing relative weakness. The major European bourses are trading a tick higher, even though talks to form Germany's next coalition government fell apart overnight. Germany's DAX is up 0.2%.

The third quarter earnings season is nearly wrapped up with nearly 95.0% of S&P 500 companies having already reported their quarterly results.However, there are still a number of notable companies due to report earnings this week, including Urban Outfitters (URBN) this evening, Lowe's (LOW), Dollar Tree (DLTR), HP (HPQ), Salesforce (CRM), and GameStop (GME) on Tuesday, and Deere (DE) on Wednesday.

As for the rest of the week, Existing Home Sales for October will be released on Tuesday, followed by weekly Initial Claims, October Durable Goods Orders, the final reading of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for November, and the minutes from the latest FOMC meeting--all of which will be released on Wednesday.

U.S. Treasuries are trading slightly higher this morning, sending yields lower across the curve; the benchmark 10-yr yield is down one basis point at 2.34%.Also of note, West Texas Intermediate crude futures are down 0.7% at $56.31 per barrel and the U.S. Dollar Index is up 0.1% at 93.66.

In U.S. corporate news:

• Wal-Mart (WMT 96.44, -1.03): -1.1% after shares were downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Buy' at Goldman.

• Verizon (VZ 45.90, +0.48): +1.1% after shares were upgraded to 'Outperform' from 'Market Perform' at Wells Fargo.

• Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region began the week on a mixed note. Japan's Nikkei -0.6%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng +0.2%, China's Shanghai Composite +0.3%, India's Sensex +0.1%.

In economic data:

• Japan Oct Trade Balance: (in JPY): 285.4 bln vs 330.0 bln exp

• Exports +14.0% vs +15.7%e

• Imports +18.9% vs +20.2%e

• Japan Oct Convenience Store Sales -1.8% vs 0.0% in Oct 2016

• New Zealand Oct Perf of Services Index 55.6 vs 55.9 in Sep

In news:

• China's Shanghai Composite managed to bounce off early morning lows after the PBOC injected the most cash into the system since January to help shore up the bond assets.

• Japanese shares could not shake off weaker than trade data, which saw both Exports and Imports come in below expectations.

• Major European indices are sporting modest gains in spite of the news that talks in Germany to form a coalition government have failed. Germany's DAX +0.2%, France's CAC +0.3%, UK's FTSE +0.2%.

In economic data:

• German producer prices were up 2.7% year-over-year in October, as expected, down from the 3.1% reading seen in September.

In news:

• The failure of government coalition talks in Germany, which the Free Democrats (FDP) attributed to "irreconcilable differences," raises the specter of Chancellor Merkel trying to govern with a minority government or Germany calling for a new election altogether. The political uncertainty has weighed some on the euro, which is down 0.1% against the dollar, but overall, investor angst has been held in check thus far.

• Separately, there are reports that UK Prime Minister May will press for cabinet support to increase the UK budget offer as part of the ongoing effort to facilitate Brexit negotiations.

MORE WILL UPDATE SOON!!