India to become fastest growing large economy in 2018: Report

According to a Sanctum Wealth Management report, when the rest of the world offers low growth and insufficient structural change, India, by contrast, is seen as a reforming economy with the prospect of strong long-term growth.

  

India will overtake China to be the fastest growing large economy in 2018 and the country's equity market will become the fifth largest in the world, says a report.

According to a Sanctum Wealth Management report, when the rest of the world offers low growth and insufficient structural change, India, by contrast, is seen as a reforming economy with the prospect of strong long-term growth.

India will become the fastest growing large economy in the world, eclipsing China. Indian equity market will jump to become the fifth largest in the world..

At a time when developed economies are cheering 2-3 per cent growth, India is focused on breaching 7.5 per cent.

Moreover, India also benefits from a favourable contrast to other emerging markets. In particular, the fact that China is downshifting to a slower pace of growth.

Prospective returns for equities are much higher than the 6-8 per cent that one can expect from fixed income.

However, if inflation or rates rise, markets are not likely to register further gains. Muted earning could also impact market performance.

Considering the fact that Nifty50 is in a broader uptrend, a sustained move beyond the 10,490-10,580 levels could lead to a rally towards 11,200-11,500 levels in the medium term.

As per the report, a major factor that has changed is that the domestic buyer now sets market prices. Domestic mutual funds bought equities worth USD 15.3 billion against USD 8 billion by foreign investors in 2017.

The report that identifies various big-picture trends at play this year in the domestic and global economy, noted that Aadhaar, Jan Dhan, Demonetisation, GST, are working to create a new inclusive infrastructure in India.

Given the rapid pace at which the Indian economy is developing, investors today are faced with the need to make crucial investment decisions amidst multiple cross currents, using a complex array of choices.

MORE WILL UPDATE SOON!!

Asian stocks record slight declines; investors focus on political developments

Japan's Nikkei 225 hovered around the flat line in the early going. Automakers were mixed: Toyota declined 0.66 percent while Mitsubishi Motors tacked on 1.04 percent. Technology stocks traded mostly higher, with Sony rising 1.09 percent and SoftBank Group advancing 0.71 percent.

  

Asian markets traded lower early on Monday as investors kept an eye on political developments in the U.S. after a government shutdown began last week. Meanwhile, the euro and pound both traded higher following weekend political moves.

Japan's Nikkei 225 hovered around the flat line in the early going. Automakers were mixed: Toyota declined 0.66 percent while Mitsubishi Motors tacked on 1.04 percent. Technology stocks traded mostly higher, with Sony rising 1.09 percent and SoftBank Group advancing 0.71 percent.

Meanwhile, South Korea's Kospi declined 0.54 percent as index heavyweight Samsung Electronics fell 2.11 percent in early trade. Other technology stocks also declined, with chipmaker SK Hynix declining 1.77 percent and LG Display slipping 0.49 percent.

The manufacturing, finance and retail sectors traded lower for the most part, with steelmaker Posco losing 2.72 percent and Lotte Shopping edging lower by 0.43 percent.

Down Under, the S&P/ASX 200 gave up gains seen earlier in the session to trade lower by 0.07 percent. The heavily-weighted financials sector declined 0.51 percent, weighing on the broader index. Shares of Commonwealth Bank sank 1.1 percent, underperforming other banking names in the morning.

National Australia Bank, another of the country's "Big Four" banks, is reportedly considering spinning out its wealth arm for a potential listing, the Australian Financial Review reported, citing sources. NAB shares were lower by 0.41 percent.

Stateside, the U.S. government shutdown continued for a second day yet there were some signs of progress on Sunday, with Republicans appearing unified over plans to end the impasse with a temporary solution. Democrats, however, want an immigration agreement in place before they support a spending plan.

"The shutdown in the U.S. looks set to dominate market attention this week. It is likely to result in plenty of noise, but no dramatic shifts in trends," ANZ Research said in a morning note.

U.S. futures tracked lower on Monday, with Dow Jones industrial average futures last declining by 49 points. On Friday, stocks had closed in positive territory as earnings season rolled on.

Currency watch

Against the yen, the dollar traded at 110.70 — below levels around the 111 handle seen on Friday. The dollar index, which tracks the dollar against a basket of six currencies, traded at 90.529.

The euro rose after Germany's Social Democrats agreed to embark on formal coalition negotiations with Chancellor Angela Merkel's government following a weekend party vote. The common currency pared some gains to trade at $1.2251 at 8:09 a.m. HK/SIN after climbing as high as $1.2274 earlier.

French President Emmanuel Macron's weekend comments were also in focus for currency markets. Macron said the U.K. could have a bespoke arrangement with the European Union following Brexit, although London would not have the same degree of access to the bloc if the U.K. left the single market, Reuters reported. The pound last traded at $1.3884.

MORE WILL UPDATE SOON !!

What changed for the market while you were sleeping? 15 things you should know

A list of important headlines from across news agencies that could help in your trade today.

  

The Nifty which started on a muted note on Friday rose to fresh record highs towards the end of the trading session and made a strong bull candle on the daily candlestick charts. The candle engulfed the profit booking seen in the previous session.

The Nifty which opened at 10,829.20 slipped below 10,800 to hit an intraday low of 10,793. It bounced back from its 5-day exponential moving average (DEMA) placed at 10,793 to close 77 points higher from its previous close at 10,894.70.

According to Pivot charts, the key support level is placed at 10,823.47, followed by 10,752.23. If the index starts to move higher, key resistance levels to watch out are 10,936.37 and 10,978.03.

The Nifty Bank closed at 26,909.5. Important Pivot level, which will act as crucial support for the index, is placed at 26,576.13, followed by 26,242.77. On the upside, key resistance levels are placed at 27,100.33, followed by 27,291.17.

Stay tuned to Moneycontrol to find out what happens in currency and equity markets today. We have collated a list of important headlines from across news agencies.

Asian markets trade lower

Asian markets traded lower early on Monday as investors kept an eye on political developments in the US after a government shutdown began last week. Japan's Nikkei 225 hovered around the flat line. South Korea's Kospi declined 0.54 percent as index heavyweight Samsung Electronics fell 2.11 percent in early trade, CNBC reported.

SGX Nifty

Trends on SGX Nifty indicate a positive  opening for the broader index in India, a rise of 71.5 points or 0.66 percent. Nifty futures were trading around 10,758-level on the Singaporean Exchange.

US government shutdown begins as spending bill fails in Senate

The US government shut down at midnight on Friday after Democrats and Republicans, locked in a bitter dispute over immigration and border security, failed to agree on a last-minute deal to fund its operations.

In a late-night session, senators blocked a bill to extend government funding through February 16. The bill needed 60 votes in the 100-member Senate but only 50 supported it, Reuters reported.

Develop a US-style online platform to sell bad loans: Viral Acharya

The Reserve Bank has called for putting in place an online trading platform on the lines of the system in the US, to sell distressed assets to ensure more transparency and better price-discovery.

Deputy governor Viral Acharya has opined that such an online trading platform can help create a thriving market for selling bad loans, which is plaguing the domestic banking system, and asked all the stakeholders to come together to develop such a mechanism.

Budget 2018 may not be populist, indicates PM Modi

Prime Minister Narendra Modi indicated that the upcoming Budget will not be a populist one and it's a myth that the common ma n expects "freebies and sops" from the government.

In an interview with Times Now television broadcast , he also pledged that his government will stay on the course of the reforms agenda that has pulled out India from being among the 'fragile five' economies of the world to being a 'bright spot', Economic Times reported.

Budgetary support for Indian Railways to be cut by 27% in FY18

The Union government has cut budgetary support to the Indian Railways by Rs 150 billion for the financial year 2017-18. It is set to rely on borrowings, asset monetisation, and internal generation so that it does not fall short of the capital expenditure target of Rs 1.31 trillion for the fiscal year, Business Standard reported.

Apollo Micro Systems to debut on bourses today

Apollo Micro Systems will debut on the bourses on Monday. The issue price for its initial public offer was Rs 275 per share. Shares of the company will be listed on NSE and BSE. Aryaman Financial Services was the book running lead manager to the offer.

India to become fastest growing large economy in 2018: Report

India will overtake China to be the fastest growing large economy in 2018 and the country's equity market will become the fifth largest in the world, says a report.

According to a Sanctum Wealth Management report, when the rest of the world offers low growth and insufficient structural change, India, by contrast, is seen as a reforming economy with the prospect of strong long-term growth.

RIL Q3 net, petchem EBIT up 16%; Jio posts first ever profit at Rs 504 cr

Reliance Industries has reported consolidated profit growth of 16.2 percent QoQ (25.1 percent year-on-year) at Rs 9,423 crore for October-December quarter, driven by petrochemical and Jio businesses.

Consolidated revenue from operations during the quarter grew 7.8 percent quarter-on-quarter (21.75 percent YoY) to Rs 1,02,500 crore, aided by volume increase with start-up of petrochemicals projects and increase in prices in refining and petrochemical businesses.

India's richest 1% grabbed 73% of wealth generation in 2017: Survey

The richest 1 percent in India cornered 73 percent of the wealth generated in the country last year, a new survey showed on Sunday, presenting a worrying picture of rising income inequality.

Besides, 67 crore Indians comprising the population's poorest half saw their wealth rise by just 1 percent, as per the survey released by the international rights group Oxfam hours.

Arun Jaitley to skip WEF Davos meet to focus on Budget 2018

Finance minister Arun Jaitley is unlikely to travel to the World Economic Forum (WEF) annual meeting in Davos next week, preferring instead to put the finishing touches on the Union Budget due to be unveiled on February 1.

ONGC to pay Rs 36,915 cr for 51.11% stake in HPCL

Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) will pay Rs 36,915 crore for a 51.11 percent stake in Hindustan Petroleum Corporation (HPCL), the former said in a filing to stock exchanges. ONGC will pay Rs 473.97 per share and will complete the acquisition of government's stake in HPCL by January end.

The finance ministry on Saturday said that ONGC will now have presence across the entire value chain and will become the country's first vertically-integrated oil major.

FPI flow to Indian market so far in January at Rs 8.7K cr

Overseas investors have put in a whopping Rs 8,700 crore in the Indian capital markets this month so far on expectation of recovery in corporate earnings and attractive yields.

Equity investment limit for EPFO may be raised to 25%

A greater proportion of provident fund savings could be headed for the stock market with shares rising to successive records in past weeks, said a government official. The government is considering a plan to raise the equity investment limit for the Employees' Provident Fund Organisation to 25 percent, Economic Times reported.

29 companies are scheduled to report results today:

As many as 29 companies are scheduled to report their results today which include names like Asian Paints, Axis Bank, Diwan Housing, Havells India, JustDial, Rallis India, Videocon Industries etc. among others.

MORE WILL UPDATE SOON!!

Wall Street ends higher despite government shutdown threat

The Dow Jones Industrial Average .rose 53.91 points, or 0.21 percent, to close at 26,071.72, the S&P 500 gained 12.27 points, or 0.44 percent, to 2,810.3 and the Nasdaq Composite added 40.33 points, or 0.55 percent, to 7,336.38.

  

Wall Street rose on Friday, led by gains in consumer stocks, even as a possible government shutdown loomed.

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq hit record closing highs, while the Dow ended the day higher after trading in a narrow range.

Nike Inc, Philip Morris International Inc and Home Depot Inc rose between 1.5 percent and 4.8 percent on upbeat analyst expectations, helping to boost the S&P 500. Conversely, losses in International Business Machines Corp and American Express capped gains on the Dow.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 53.91 points, or 0.21 percent, to close at 26,071.72, the S&P 500 gained 12.27 points, or 0.44 percent, to 2,810.3 and the Nasdaq Composite added 40.33 points, or 0.55 percent, to 7,336.38.

For the week, the Dow rose 1.04 percent, the S&P 500 added 0.86 percent and the Nasdaq gained 1.04 percent.

Nine of the 11 major S&P sectors were higher, led by a 1.1 percent gain in the consumer staples index and a 0.9 percent rise in consumer discretionary stocks.

A disappointing full-year profit forecast from IBM pushed its shares down 4.0 percent, the biggest single-day loss since July.

American Express slipped 1.8 percent after posting its first quarterly loss in 26 years and suspending share buybacks for the next six months.

“The market has a few jitters as the result of a potential shutdown,” said Kevin Miller, chief executive of E-Valuator Funds in Bloomington, Minnesota. “From a longer-term perspective, corporate earnings are still strong, and we’re about to engage in the benefits of tax reform.”

The US Senate was racing to avert a shutdown ahead of a midnight deadline on the spending measure amid lingering disagreements between Democrats and Republicans. Negotiations continued on Friday after Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer met with President Donald Trump at the White House to address the impasse.

Advancing issues outnumbered declining ones on the NYSE by a 1.98-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 2.51-to-1 ratio favoured advancers.

The S&P 500 posted 105 new 52-week highs and nine new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 171 new highs and 30 new lows.

Volume on US exchanges was 6.82 billion shares, compared to the 6.32 billion average over the last 20 trading days.

MORE WILL UPDATE SOON!!

STOCKS TO BUY FOR INTRADAY: 22nd January 2018

BUY DELTACORP (NSE Code) BUY ABOVE 340 AFTER COOLING PERIOD. 

SIGNAL : PREVIOUS TOP CROSSED WITH INCREASED VOLUME. Stop Loss : 320 Target : 356 (Short term)

HOT BUZZING STOCKS (22.01.2018)

NSE SYMBOL        CLOSING RATE

HEG                           2774.85

GALLISPAT               353.85

RELIGARE                   52.25

NAGREEKCAP            47.15

Stock to Buy Tips for 22nd January 2018

MORE WILL UPDATE SOON!!

Jubilant Food likely to rally to Rs 2,350, NIIT Technologies may test Rs 700:

 If you see since March, it has been trading between Rs 40 and Rs 50. I think with IT coming back, the plethora of choices you have – you can do much better than Zee Learn. So I would move on.

One can use a break even stop loss in UPL. I think it has completed its correction. Around Rs 802 or thereabouts is the 200-day moving average (DMA), I think once it starts and you get a bit of agri-Budget etc, you could easily see levels of Rs 900 coming back. So this is a good point to enter a stock after it has been through a large correction.

The only problem in RCF is that in the past Rs 125-130 has acted as some kind of resistance and being public sector undertaking (PSU) etc, it tends to remain rangebound but fertiliser stocks are flying. Look at GSFC, Chambal Fertiliser, Deepak Fertiliser, so maybe one can move into one of those private sector. In Coromandel International we saw it at Rs 170-180, today that is at Rs 560, so those are the kind of stocks you have to get in.

RCF has had its run. Now Rs 15-20 higher, it will start getting into resistance. These stocks have limited kind of scope, so try to get into a private fertiliser stocks.

Jubilant Food is now breaking into multi-year highs. The previous high was about Rs 1,960. So now above Rs 1,960, you open up a Rs 1,200 point upside. That may not happen immediately but definitely new highs means that everybody who has ever bought Jubilant is now profitable. So again the same story repeats that the supply dries up. So I would see a very quick rally to Rs 2,300-2,350.

NIIT Technologies is a different case. The entire sector, entire space is looking positive and this is the first quarter of good results. My sense is NIIT Tech could also move up to Rs 650-700. So midcap IT, I think the good time is probably just beginning.

MORE WILL UPDATE SOON!!

Dow Jones 30 and NASDAQ 100 Price Forecast January 22, 2018, Technical Analysis

The US stock markets continue to show a “buy on the dips” mentality, and I believe that the Dow Jones 30 and the NASDAQ 100 are showing that. In a twist, it appears that the NASDAQ 100 is going to take the lead, which is something that it had not done for some time.

  

Dow Jones 30

The Dow Jones 30 initially tried to rally during the Friday session, but as you can see we pulled back a little bit to try to find buyers. I think eventually the buyers will return, and I think that we will go to the 26,150 level. There is a significant amount of bullish pressure underneath, and therefore I think it is much easier to buy this market than to sell it. In fact, I have no scenario in which a willing to sell the market right now, as corporate earnings continue to do quite well. A shrinking US dollar of course helps exports, as goes the typical correlation.

NASDAQ 100

The NASDAQ 100 initially tried to rally during the Friday session but then turned around to pull back as we reached a fresh, new high. The 6850 level is a bit resistive, and a pullback at that point looked reaching towards the uptrend line, an area that seems to be very supportive. Looking at the up trending line, it forms an ascending triangle, and that tells me that the market is trying to rally. Beyond that, the hourly chart is crossing over just above the oversold condition, so I think we will eventually break out and go looking towards the 6900 level. I recognize that these pullbacks offer value, just as the algorithmic traders have programmed their robots to deal with this market.

MORE WILL UPDATE SOON!!

S&P 500 Price Forecast January 22, 2018, Technical Analysis

The S&P 500 has been very volatile as of late, but Friday was bullish, as it looks likely we are going to go much higher. The 2810 level is an area that continues to attract a lot of attention, but it appears that we are trying to build up the necessary momentum to finally go higher.

The S&P 500 rallied during the Friday trading session, as we continue to see the 2810 level offer significant resistance. If we can break above there, the market should then go higher, perhaps reaching towards the 2825 level, and then eventually the 2850 level. Short-term pullbacks should continue to offer buying opportunities, and I believe that the market will find plenty of support at the 2790 handle underneath, as we continue to see a lot of interest around the level. I think that ultimately the market should continue to go to the 2850 level longer term, but it is going to take a while to get there.

If we were to break down below the 2775 handle, then I would be a seller of this market, but I don’t think that’s going to happen, at least not in the short term. There seems to be a lot of a “buy on the dips” mentality out there, as algorithmic traders are willing to pick up anything close to a 1% drop. The tax reform, the corporate gains, and of course the global expansion continues to push the S&P 500 higher. The US dollar falling also helps with exports, so that’s yet another reason that this market continues to attract money. With repatriation of funds from overseas, many major companies are going to be buying their own stock back, and that of course will lift this market as well.

MORE WILL UPDATE SOON!!

Nifty Bank Outlook for the Week (Jan 22, 2018 – Jan 25, 2018)

EquityPandit’s Outlook for Nifty Bank for the week  (Jan 22, 2018 – Jan 25, 2018):

NIFTY BANK:

Nifty Bank closed the week on positive note gaining around 4.60%.

As we have mentioned, last week that resistance for the index lies in the zone of 25900 to 26000 where the index has formed a top in the month of November-2017. If the index manages to close above these levels then the index can move to the levels of 26300 to 26400. During the week the index manages to hit a high of 26958 and close the week around the levels of 26942.

Minor support for the index lies in the zone of 26300 to 26400. Support for the index lies in the zone of 25700 to 25800 where break out levels and short term moving averages are lying. If the index manages to close below these levels then the index can drift to the levels of 25000 to 25100 from where the index broke out of triple top pattern.

Resistance for the index lies in the zone of 27100 to 27200 where target for the break out is lying. If the index manages to close above these levels then the index can move to the levels of 27400 to 27500 where trend-line joining earlier highs is lying.

Range for the week is seen from 26400 to 26500 on downside & 27400 to 27500 on upside.

MORE WILL UPDATE SOON!!

Nifty Outlook for the Week (Jan 22, 2018 – Jan 25, 2018)

Equityandit’s Outlook for Nifty for week (Jan 22, 2018 – Jan 25, 2018):

NIFTY:

Nifty closed the week on positive note gaining around 2.00%.

As we have mentioned last week, that resistance for the index lies in the zone of 10600 to 10700 where trend-line joining highs formed in the month of September-2016 and August-2017 is lying. If the index manages to close above these levels then the index can move to the levels of 10900 to 11000. During the week the index manages to hit a high of 10907 and close the week around the levels of 10895.

Support for the index lies in the zone of 10600 to 10700 from where the index broke out of trend-line joining highs formed in the month of September-2016 and August-2017 is lying. If the index manages to close below these levels then the index can drift to the levels of 10350 to 10400 where break out levels and short term moving averages are lying.

Resistance for the index lies in the zone of 10900 to 11000. If the index manages to close above these levels then the index can move to the levels of 11200 to 11300.

Broad range for the week is seen from 10600 on downside & 11200 on upside.

MORE WILL UPDATE SOON!!

RIL could hit record highs on Monday; 10 takeaways from Q3 results

The stock is just 3 percent short of its record high of Rs 959.50. RIL has already rallied nearly 80 percent in the last one year.

 

Oil & gas major Reliance Industries reported results were mostly ahead of analyst expectations on D-Street on Friday, led by beat in petchem, digital business (Jio), and retail. The stock, which is trading near record highs, closed 1.2 percent higher at Rs 931 on the NSE.

Tracking the results, most analysts expect the stock to open higher when trading resumes on Monday and possible rally to a fresh record high in the coming week.

The stock is just 3 percent short of its record high of Rs 959.50. RIL has already rallied nearly 80 percent in the last one year.

Sanjiv Bhasin of IIFL in an interview to CNBC-TV18 said that GRMs at USD 11.6/bbl is largely in line. Overall, the numbers are in-line and ahead of estimates what we calculated.

Commenting on the stock, Bhasin said that if something can take you to 11,000 on the Nifty, I think it will be RIL. The IUC cut has been very poorly received by Bharti Airtel and Idea but will be a big blessing for Jio. Going forward, RIL will not be a laggard and if Nifty hits 11,000, RIL will be at Rs 1000, which could happen in next 3 days or a week, but is definitely on cards.

SP Tulsian of sptulsian.com in an interview to CNBC-Tv18 said that no analyst would have thought that Jio would report PAT in FY18 which we have seen in case of Q3. Having posted an EBITDA of Rs 2,628 crore with a Rs504 crore is a blast for Reliance Jio and will cheer markets going forward.

Commenting on the stock movement, Tulsian said that I will not be surprised to see the share moving into four digits ahead of the Budget or maybe in the coming week.

We have collated top 10 takeaways from RIL Q3 results:

Net Profit

RIL reported a consolidated net profit of Rs9423 crore for the quarter ended December 2017, up 16.2 percent QoQ compared to Rs8109 crore reported in the previous quarter and Rs7533 reported in the year-ago period. On a standalone basis, RIL reported a net profit of Rs8454 crore.

Net Revenues

RIL achieved revenue of Rs109,905 crore (USD 17.2 billion), an increase of 30.5 percent as compared to Rs84,189 crore in the corresponding period of the previous year.

The increase in revenue is primarily on account of volume increase with the start-up of petrochemicals projects and increase in prices in refining and petrochemical businesses.

The increase in consolidated revenues reflects robust growth of 116% in Retail business and continued enhancement in Jio’s wireless operations.

Operating Profit

Operating profit before other income and depreciation increased by 52.0 percent to Rs17,588 crore (USD 2.8 billion) from Rs11,574 crore in the corresponding period of the previous year.

Strong operating performance was driven by growth in petrochemicals, retail and digital services businesses along with firm refining margins.

Cash on Books

Cash and cash equivalents as on 31st December 2017 were at Rs78,617 crore (USD 12.3 billion) compared to Rs77,226 crore as on 31st March 2017. These were in bank deposits, mutual funds, CDs, Government Bonds and other marketable securities.

Capital Expenditure

The capital expenditure for the quarter ended 31st December 2017 was Rs17,336 crore (USD 2.7 billion) including exchange rate difference capitalization.

Capital expenditure was principally on account of Digital Services business, the balance of expenditure for projects in the petrochemicals and refining business at Jamnagar and in Organized Retail business.

Refining

Revenue from the Refining and Marketing segment for the quarter ended December 2017 increased by 23 percent on a YoY basis to Rs75,865 crore (USD 11.9 billion) aided by 24 percent higher Brent oil prices.

The segment EBIT marginally decreased by 0.5 percent on a YoY basis to Rs6,165 crore (USD 1.0 billion).

GRMs

Gross Refining Margins (GRM) for 3Q FY18 stood at USD 11.6/bbl as against USD 10.8/bbl in 3Q FY17. RIL’s GRM outperformed Singapore complex refining margins by USD 4.4/bbl.

Petrochemicals Business

The revenue from the Petrochemicals segment for the quarter ended December 2017 increased by 47.6 percent on a YoY basis to Rs33,726 crore (USD 5.3 billion) due to higher volumes and prices.

Petrochemicals segment EBIT was at a record level of Rs5,753 crore (USD 901 million) supported by strong volume growth, higher margins for Polypropylene and downstream polyester products. The volume growth was led by the world’s largest ROGC coming on-stream along with downstream LDPE, LLDPE and MEG plants.

Reliance Jio

Reliance Jio posted a Q3 profit at Rs 504 crore and EBITDA grew by 82 percent to Rs 2,628 crore QoQ. Jio continues its rapid ramp-up of subscriber base and as of 31st December 2017, there were 160.1 million subscribers on the network.

This makes it India’s largest wireless data subscriber base, with the gap widening from the other operators. With gross additions of 27.8 million during the quarter, Jio continues to have a dominant share of all the new LTE smartphones sold in the country.

Reliance Retail

Revenues from the retail segment for the 3Q FY18 grew by 116.4 percent on a YoY basis to Rs18,798 crore compared to Rs8,688 crore reported in the year-ago period.

PBDIT for 3Q FY18 grew by 82.0 percent on a YoY basis to Rs606 crore from Rs333 crore reported in the year-ago period. Reliance Retail witnessed stellar performance across all consumption baskets during the period.

MORE WILL UPDATE SOON!!

Planning to enter markets in the year 2018? Don’t overlook these 5 factors

We are starting to see a bottoming out of corporate earnings in India, and expect the earnings to rise in second half of FY18 and pick-up more meaningfully in FY19.

2017 has been a good year for equity markets, helped by record high institutional flows from domestic mutual funds, and also a recent pick-up in foreign portfolio investor (FPI) flows.

The calendar year 2017 up till November, mutual funds registered net equity inflows of the equivalent of around over USD 17 billion, while foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) recorded net equity inflows of around USD 9 billion over the same period.

Over the past 3 years, mutual fund equity flows have been around 2.5X FPI flows into equities, indicating the growing importance of domestic investor’s participation in the Indian markets.

Investors have also been gradually shifting from traditional physical assets to financial assets, and this has especially picked up pace post de-monetization.

Some of the reforms of the government have started bearing fruit, with India’s ranking jumping by 30 places in World Bank’s Ease of Doing Business 2018 rankings, from 130 in the previous year to 100 in this year—making it the biggest jump for any country in this year’s rankings.

Some of the key things to look out for in 2018 are as follows:

Corporate earnings revival:

We are starting to see a bottoming out of corporate earnings in India, and expect the earnings to rise in second half of FY18 and pick-up more meaningfully in FY19. The markets will be closely tracking this, as it has already priced in this revival. Any disappointment on this front may pose headwinds for the markets in the near term.

Market valuations seem to have priced in recovery in earnings growth:

With corporate earnings being muted over the past few fiscal years, the rise in equity markets has been helped by PE expansion.

Currently, the market is trading above its long-term average, although on certain other metrics like P/B ratio and Market Cap to GDP ratio—the markets look fairly valued.

Certain segments like mid/small-caps, which have outperformed over the past few years, are presently trading at significant premium to large-caps and investors should review their asset allocation in this space.

Economic growth on recovery path:

India had seen some deceleration in economic growth over the past year, but we expect growth to gradually pick-up over the coming year, led by pick-up in consumption and also a gradual recovery in investment.

GDP & GVA growth picked up in Q2 FY18 from multi-year lows, and we expect the recovery to continue, helped by various reforms by the government bearing fruit.

Although the capex cycle remains currently in doldrums, we expect the PSU bank recapitalization initiative to contribute to a pick-up in credit growth, which could trigger a capex recovery over the coming quarters.

Concerns about fiscal slippage this year is keeping interest rates high:

We expect the interest rate cycle to have bottomed out in India unless inflation and economic growth surprise significantly on the downside. Rising crude oil prices, and any fiscal slippage pose some upside risk to inflation, along with the implementation of salary and allowances hike by the state government.

On the fiscal front, the deficit has reached 96 percent of the budgeted estimate for the full year during the first 7 months of FY18 (April-October 2017), compared to 79 percent in the year-ago period.

State fiscal deficits have been rising and there is some concern about fiscal slippage due to GST rate cuts, and the PSU bank recapitalization initiative. Current account deficit (CAD) is also expected to rise in FY18, compared to FY17, due to rising trade deficit.

An eye needs to be kept on movement on crude prices, which may pose some pressure on CAD for an oil-importing country like India. However, even if there is any slippage, we expect fiscal deficit and current account deficit to remain within the comfort zone, and not be a major disruptive factor for markets.

Globally, the easy monetary policy is on its way out:

Major central banks have started to tighten monetary policy or withdraw policy stimulus, as global growth and inflation pick up. As expected, the US Fed hiked rates in its December 2017 policy and expects three rate hikes in 2018.

The Fed had also started to unwind its balance sheet from October this year. Thus, investors need to keep an eye on global monetary policy and any pick up in pace in monetary tightening or hawkish signals by the central banks may pose some risk to flows into emerging markets, thereby causing some headwinds to the Indian markets as well.

In a nut-shell, we expect economic growth to pick-up in India, accentuated with a revival in the corporate earnings cycle, which would augur well for the markets over the medium to long-term.

However, investors need to moderate their return expectation from equities in 2018 compared to 2017, as some of the positives, seem to be priced in, and we need to give time for corporate earnings to catch-up.

Over the long term, market returns will reflect GDP growth and corporate earnings growth, and therefore investors should carry on investing in a disciplined manner to build wealth through the compounding effect of equities.

After all, legendary investor Peter Lynch had once said—“In the long run, it’s not just how much money you make that will determine your future prosperity. It’s how much of that money you put to work by saving it and investing it.

More Will Update Soon!!